RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesAUSTIN - The die has been cast.
The perception of this year's Texas team has already been ensconced in the nation's consciousness of college football fans from Carmel to Cape Cod.
It's championship or bust for the Longhorns.
Except … not really.
And not even remotely close to being accurate. Neither is probably likely. It doesn't have to be that restricting scenario.
Does Texas have a championship roster? Of course, it does. The best in Steve Sarkisian's six years without question.
Would a non-championship season be a meltdown and doom Texas for the future? That's just stupid. Nobody believes that. Remember, it took Darrell Royal seven years to win a national championship. Took Mack Brown eight. And neither of them coached in the lion's den of the SEC.
So what exactly would bust look like? And what would that mean going ahead if the Longhorns did miss the College Football Playoff for the second year in a row?
Would Texas actually fire a head coach who has won 10 games or more three straight seasons before 2026? Highly, highly unlikely. It is true if the Longhorns fall to Ohio State (again) in Week 2, dejection in Austin will climb higher than gas prices.
Sarkisian has his faults but has shown he can win big, can beat rivals Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Arkansas consistently and deserves tremendous credit for turning the program around even if he can't beat Georgia or Ohio State or win the SEC to this point or score in the red zone.
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But if the program doesn't end its title drought extending back to 2005 soon, will Texas wilt in self-pity and look for an escape clause to leave the SEC and join the Sun Belt? Would Chris Del Conte drop the football program and add women's flag football or rugby? Would the administration pave over DKR and turn it into the world's biggest outdoor pickleball arena and pour all its money into softball and swimming?
Of course not. Texas would go to the ACC. Just kidding.
But also, bust means nada. OK, maybe if disaster struck and Texas went 7-5 - yes, and that would qualify as a disaster - Longhorn fans' hearts would be busted and Sarkisian would have to make serious changes to staff and strategy.
But seriously the Longhorns aren't going away, no matter how this season plays out. Write that in stone.
Arch Manning and the Longhorns won 10 games in 2025 and are expeting more for 2026. (Dustin Markland/Getty Images)
If Texas does miss the College Football Playoff, it says here it will still have the makings of a championship roster for 2027. And 2028. And beyond. Have you seen the transfers and recruits Sarkisian has brought in? As a big-time franchise, it's all but recession-proof. Then again, USC, Nebraska, UCLA, Florida State, Arkansas and Penn State used to think the same thing.
But what would really change?
Texas would still be flush with money. Austin's still Austin. Recruits would still be tooling around in Lamborghinis and Mercedes. The coeds are still pretty. Players would still get a world-class degree if they bother to Zoom into their classes.
Another 9-3 regular season, however, would be monumentally disappointing. Monumentally, but not cause for catastrophe.
That said, even though this is probably the most talented roster on paper since Brown's salad days of 2004-09, I'm not prepared to say Texas will win it all this fall/winter because, well, Sarkisian hasn't done it yet. I bought the hype last year and had the Longhorns No. 1 in August and Arch Manning poised to deliver a December speech in New York.
Didn't happen. Not going down that road again. Let's see ‘em earn it.
Texas hasn't proven it can win the big game lately and too often loses a little one (Florida) now and then for me to go all-in.
So I'm penciling in the Longhorns for a 10-2 record with losses to Ole Miss and Texas A&M but still land a CFP berth because of a win over the Buckeyes, leading to a run to the semifinals where they will lose to Oregon. A strong season but hardly satisfactory.
With that in mind, here are my projections for this season. Gamble on them at your own risk.
Manning will look so much more comfortable with 15 starts under his belt and will come out firing. Expect him to throw for 3,745 yards - second behind Colt McCoy's 3,859 yards - and 31 touchdowns just behind McCoy's 34 against only six interceptions. Arch will also improve his accuracy from 61.4 to 68%. He will dial back his running because of a better offensive line and better backfield behind him but still run for 386 yards and eight scores.
KJ Lacey Jr. will assume the backup role as he should to prepare the team for Life After Arch. He won't get that many snaps but will throw for 189 yards and two scores and run for two more.
Texas will have a 1,000-yard runner after last year's anomaly, but it's really hard to pick between Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers. Smothers should be the starter and go for 1,138 yards and 12 touchdowns and will become a long-range threat and score four times from more than 40 yards. Brown will get more short-yardage carries and put up 823 yards and seven touchdowns. They'll combine to catch 66 passes for 359 yards and four touchdowns.
True freshman Derrek Cooper will get his shot and show a ton of promise with 212 yards and two scores.
The Cam Coleman Show will be electric. He'll catch 72 passes for 954 yards and eight touchdowns and make one acrobatic grab after another. Ryan Wingo, bulkier but with no loss of speed, will still specialize with the bubble screens and quick outs and jet sweeps and break five gains of more than 50 yards before finishing with 65 balls for 873 yards and nine touchdowns.
Put down Emmett Mosley V for 38 receptions and four scores. Look out as true freshman Jermaine Bishop Jr. will flash and score twice as the future at that position.
Michael ...
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