RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The 2026-27 NFL season kicks off with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, and the market kicks off the way it always does: grading teams on what they did instead of how they actually did it.
Those gaps are largest in the games that fans are the most excited to watch: the Games of the Year market. So let's get into them, how we got to our number on each and where I believe the market went wrong.
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Here are five of my favorite wagers:
Week 1: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 44.5)
Fans don't have to wait long for the first Game of the Year, and the market has already made up its mind on it: two elite defenses, hang a low number and move on. I understand the instinct. Seattle's defense graded No. 1 in our deserved-points model last year, giving up just 16.4 PPG a game, and New England's sat right behind it at No. 2. On paper, that's a rock fight — and the total of 44.5 prices it like one.
But here's what the total is glossing over: both of these offenses are slightly under appreciated. We have Seattle at fourth in offense by the same model, scoring 27.1 expected points and New England came in at No. 8. With both teams top eight in offense, yet a total at 44.5, the defenses are getting a bit too much credit we see value on the over as we land at 47.1 projected points.
Bet: Over 44.5 (-110)
Week 1: Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 44.5) at Houston Texans
This is my favorite number on the board, because I think the market has this number short, even with projections that on a season-long build have the Texans better than most models are implying.
Houston's offense deserved to score just 21.3 points per game, No. 18 in the league per our score-expectations metric, and the whole season was propped up by two things: a No. 3 defense and the single biggest luck number in the NFL, a +2.48 that says they won a stack of close games they had no business winning.
Now line them up against Buffalo, where Josh Allen's offense graded No. 3 at 27.5 points per game — a full six points of deserved offense over Houston — and that's the crux of the whole thing: a high-powered offense against a team whose coach has made his living building incredible defensive units. It's not that Houston's defense can't find stops, it's a lack of belief that its No. 18 offense has the power to move the ball on a Bills defense. We make Buffalo the better team by 1.6.
The market moved recently from Buffalo +1.5 to -1.5, but I still think the Bills money line presents good value here.
Bet: Bills ML -115
Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 49.5)
Thanksgiving in Dallas, and the market's leaning into the fun.
The Cowboys are at home in a coin-flip spread with a shootout expected in this high total matchup. On the surface it tracks, as Dallas's offense is expected to take large explosive opportunities and the key reason Dak Prescott is in the front running to have the most passing yards all season. The problem has time and time again been the defense, bolting on a top-five offense to the league's worst defense is exactly how you get a fun team the market loves and a bad number to bet into.
Philadelphia is the opposite build. Their offense is nothing special (No. 16 in expected scoring), but the defense is the whole identity. It's not that Dallas can't score, it's that Philly is the exact roster built to make them earn every inch while they grind the clock and keep it low scoring.
Our model actually has the Eagles as the better team here, not the underdog, and the total a field goal heavy. On Thanksgiving, everyone wants the track meet; I want the team that turns it into a holiday power nap.
Bets: Eagles +1.5 (-110) and under 49.5 (-110)
Week 12: Kansas Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 50.5)
The game everybody circles on their calendar.
Patrick Mahomes and Allen have traded haymakers for years, and the market prices it like it always ends 34-31, hanging a 50.5 total that's really just based on reputation. But last year's Chiefs weren't that team: Kansas City's offense deserved just 21.1 PPG a game (No. 20 in the league in our model). While I'd love a Mahomes bounce back as much as the next person, the identity of this team has flipped. The assumption they will just be back to their normal theatrics seems tough, with as much as Mahomes puts his body into trouble over the course of a season.
The Bills will get theirs, but they’ll face a top-five Kansas City defense and pairing that with a Chiefs offense that ran that cold is not the recipe for 51 points. We land at 46.4, more than a field goal under. The names say shootout, but the numbers say grind it out and buy in early on the potential variance this Kansas City team could have with the swings of Mahomes’ potential ceiling.
Bet: Under 50.5 (-110)
Week 16: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 45.5)
A Christmas gift for the NFL fans.
Seattle is the reigning champ, so of course the Seahawks home favorites laying a point and a half against the division-rival Rams. But pulling player talent and expectation we have the wrong team favored here.
The Rams graded as our No. 1 offense last year (29.6 PPG) and still ran cold, a better team than its record that the market keeps underselling because it doesn't wear the crown. Seattle's No. 1 defense is real and this isn’t to discredit them at all, but we know what we are getting there and it feels baked in that is the best unit on the field; in actuality I think it's much closer than the market has projected.
Getting the side we think is better, in a division game, as a Christmas underdog, is the kind of gift I wake up early for (pun intended).
Bet: Rams +1.5 (-110)
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