Cardinals vs. Cubs Friday MLB picks, parlay: Rest advantage may not be enough for St. Louis in matinee — CBS Sports

RESOLVING THE LEDGER

Cardinals vs. Cubs Friday MLB picks, parlay: Rest advantage may not be enough for St. Louis in matinee — CBS Sports | AIPROPX

One of my favorite things in any MLB season is a Chicago Cubs standalone Friday matinee at Wrigley Field, something I always lovingly refer to as a "Ferris Bueller" special. We have one of the sport's top rivalries renewed today with the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the North Side. It's a 2:20 ET first pitch and an Apple TV exclusive.

The Cubs sometimes have a huge advantage in these Friday series-opening matinees if they were off Thursday and the opponent was not, but the opposite is true . St. Louis didn't play Thursday, while the Cubbies were blasted 7-0 in Washington to see a three-game winning streak snapped but also rested a few regulars.

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This series certainly has National League playoff implications. It's now pretty obvious the Cubbies will return to the postseason holding the top wild card spot and six games ahead of San Diego for the second one. Earning the top spot means a series at home just as the Cubs had in 2025 when they beat the Padres in three.

But with Milwaukee fading a bit of late and the Brewers potentially looking at more troubles this weekend at the Dodgers (although they scored a great comeback win Thursday), the NL Central is back up for grabs with Chicago only four games back. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Cubs a 99.4% shot to make the playoffs and a 18.4% chance to win the division. Chicago and Milwaukee still have seven games to play against one another. The Cubs are +240 for the division and -165 favorites to be the NL's No. 4 overall seed.

If you're interested in MLB betting and want to try it on the best sports betting apps , you can check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games like Cardinals-Cubs from the simulations and our experts .

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Trade acquisition Clay Holmes makes his second start for the club after coming over from the Mets at the deadline along with outfielder Tyrone Taylor , although it did cost Chicago one of its top prospects in infielder Jefferson Rojas , who immediately became New York's No. 1 prospect.

Holmes (4-5, 2.86 ERA overall), who is likely to decline his 2027 player option to return to free agency, was a little sluggish in his Cubs debut last Saturday in Kansas City when he allowed four runs and six hits over four innings. Holmes admitted he was a pick too amped up early on and left his pitches in the zone – the Royals scored in each of the first three innings.

But rust was to be expected considering Holmes' change of scenery and the fact that he hadn't pitched in the majors since mid-May after fracturing his fibula on a comebacker. Holmes is an excellent ground-ball pitcher -- his signature pitch is a sinker, which he throws about 50% of the time -- and earned 11 of his 12 outs against the Royals via grounders.

"I'm really close to being myself," Holmes said after. "It's easy adjustments -- nothing too major. It's just settling in and trusting the sinker. The rest of the arsenal plays off that. As long as that's in a good spot, we'll find our way."

He faced the Cardinals way back on March 31 in St. Louis and got the win in his season debut, allowing two runs over 5.2 innings. For today, the model has him at 5.3 innings, 4.5 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs. He's +166 to record the win.

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St. Louis is three games back of the NL's final wild card spot but the model gives it just a 4.7% shot to make the postseason, and I'm not seeing it even having won six of nine and with impressive series wins over the Yankees and Phillies . Outfielder Alec Burleson is having a huge August at .342 with three doubles, four homers, eight runs and 13 RBI. He is 4-for-9 off Holmes with a double.

It's the recent weak link of the Cards rotation Friday in lefty Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15 ERA). Despite those not-great numbers, you would actually be up $435 if you bet $100 on the Cardinals to win each of his 23 starts as they are 13-10 in those games. But most of that success was earlier in the season. Liberatore is winless in four straight and was hit hard in three. He has allowed at least five earned runs five times this season and four have come over his past nine appearances.

The 26-year-old has made three starts this year vs. the Cubbies and is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA and .283 opponents' batting average. One of those three was at Wrigley Field on July 5 and Liberatore lost, allowing four runs over five. The model has him at 5.2 innings, 4.8 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs.

Several Cubs have good splits off him, led by new NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong (4-for-13, two doubles) and Alex Bregman (3-for-7, two doubles, HR).

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I've had a nice parlay betting week in this space, so let's finish strong. Ideally, the Cubs wouldn't have played Thursday, but I actually prefer in some way they got smashed in D.C. And no key relievers were used. It should be decent pitching weather today with highs of only 75 -- I'd kill for that right now being as it's nearly 100 every day here in Florida with 90% humidity -- and winds blowing in at about 9 mph. The model has the Cubs winning 4.9-4.0. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .