RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Among the countless interesting tidbits in an ESPN story shadowing Sean Payton for a week before last season's AFC Championship game was one of Payton's "playoff myths" he shared with the team.
The myth he showed his players was, "We'll Be Back Next Year." Payton followed that by telling the team, "Nothing is promised."
The Denver Broncos had a remarkable season with a weird ending. Not long after the Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills in one of the most thrilling games of last postseason, Payton returned to the podium and shared with the media that Bo Nix had broken his ankle and was out for the rest of the season, including the AFC championship game.
The Broncos battled in that AFC title game against the Patriots with Jarrett Stidham starting at quarterback, but one massive turnover by Stidham and a questionable fourth-down gamble in the first half, along with a blinding snowstorm in the second half, might have cost them a win and a chance to play in the Super Bowl. As Payton told the team before the game, being in that position might not happen again.
"Man, we missed Bo in that game," Payton said in the story, written by Seth Wickersham.
The bad news for the Broncos is it's almost impossible to improve upon a 14-3 record, especially considering how many comeback wins Denver had. The good news is Denver's infrastructure is solid.
The Broncos have a coach in Payton who has a good shot at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. They finally found an answer to their longtime quarterback problem in Nix. The Broncos have perhaps the best offensive line in the NFL as well as a top five defense.
Nik Bonitto leads a Broncos defense that helped the team get the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post) AAron Ontiveroz via Getty Images
And now Denver brings on a brand new playmaker in Jaylen Waddle, acquired in a trade with the Dolphins . It would be nice if the Broncos had a star running back or were better at linebacker, but nobody's perfect and Denver is situated for success as well as anyone aside from a few teams.
The regression case can't be ignored though. Like the Patriots , who beat Denver in that snowstorm to advance to the Super Bowl, there's plenty of skepticism about the Broncos coming close to repeating their 2025 season. It starts with great fortune in close games last season. The Broncos were 2-2 after four weeks, then had a 10-game winning streak. Nine of those wins were by eight or fewer points. After a loss to the Jaguars to break the streak, the Broncos added a seven-point win over Kansas City without Patrick Mahomes.
That streak of close wins is unsustainable, unless you're the 2023-24 Chiefs. It included one of the wildest comebacks ever, as the Broncos trailed 19-0 at home to the lowly Giants but scored 33 points in the fourth quarter to win 33-32. Denver trailed in 12 of its 14 regular-season wins, becoming the first team in NFL history with 12 comeback wins, according to Opta Stats . Then they added another comeback win in the playoffs against the Bills.
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The Broncos profiled as closer to an 11-win team based on point differential (+90) and DVOA . There's nothing wrong with an 11-win season, but it's a big step back from 14.
Denver was average in most offensive metrics, and maybe Waddle doesn't change all of that. The defense was good but that fluctuates more than offensive success from season to season. While the Patriots got a lot of scorn for facing an easy schedule, the Broncos played the fourth-easiest schedule last season, according to DVOA.
There are reasons to believe in the staying power of the Broncos while also acknowledging that they're unlikely to have as smooth of a runout as last season. The Broncos hope to be right back in the AFC championship game and finish the job to make a Super Bowl. But nothing is promised.
Offseason grade
The Broncos were surprisingly quiet in the early part of free agency. Then came the big move, as Denver traded for Jaylen Waddle and a fourth-round pick, sending the Dolphins a first-, third- and fourth-round pick in return. That's a lot to give up, but it was also a weak draft class. While the Broncos retained many of their own free agents, like running back J.K. Dobbins, linebacker Alex Singleton and tight end Adam Trautman, the only outside free agent they added was safety Tycen Anderson on a one-year, $1.5 million deal. The plan was pretty clear: Run it back with last season's team, with one key addition in Waddle.
The Broncos did lose defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers, who signed a massive three-year, $63 million deal with the Titans, and linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who didn't fit well in his first and only Broncos season. The draft was light due to Denver sending three picks to the Dolphins. Despite making only a few additions, Waddle was such a perfect fit for what the Broncos needed that it was still a successful offseason.
Grade: B
Quarterback report
Bo Nix had 279 yards and three touchdowns with several key plays in an overtime win over the Bills in the divisional round, which has to be a reason why everyone has decided to ignore that Nix was only average at best during the regular season. Nix's 87.8 passer rating was 26th among qualified quarterbacks, behind players like Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa. Most of Nix's numbers were slightly down from his rookie season. Offensively, the Bro...
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