RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Did you draft Saquon Barkley last year? What about Breece Hall or Travis Kelce ? How about Terry McLaurin or D.J. Moore? Did you take a quarterback too soon?
Don't you wish you could have read something -- anything -- that would have helped you make better decisions on Draft Day?
You could have. All of those names and more were on my final Busts list of 2025.
(Then again, so was D'Andre Swift and Zay Flowers . And let's face it, Josh Allen was far from a bust even if you reached for him. No one said I was perfect.)
Busts are based on Average Draft Position. I'll never rule out drafting anyone on this list but if it's not at a value then I am for-sure OUT on that player being on any of my teams.
Let me show you the research I've done that's compelled me to lower expectations for these players.
It's taken about a decade but we're finally starting to get through to more people about the pitfalls of reaching for a quarterback too soon in one-QB redraft leagues. At least it looks that way based on CBS Offseason Average Draft Position (ADP), where Josh Allen (28.8th overall), Drake Maye (47.9) and Lamar Jackson (48.4) are the first three signal-callers off the board.
Do yourself a favor and find a ranked list of Fantasy quarterbacks. As you scan the names, ask yourself if you'd be OK starting them on your squad. The more names you say yes to, the more you should be focused on NOT reaching for a quarterback in your drafts. Similarly, if you don't say yes to many QBs as starters, then you might only feel good about your team if you do reach for a quarterback.
Point is, there are a lot of good quarterbacks you could start, and if you wait until you get a steal of a deal then you should benefit by getting some good players at other positions first.
CBS Sports ADP: 7.5 FantasyPros ADP: 6.0 2025 Fantasy stats: 24.5 PPR points per game He's sorta bust-ish because ... he's a 30-year-old running back coming off of a 450-touch season with declining rushing efficiency, plus his own team has hinted at a reduction in his workload. It's not just the history of NFL running backs coming off of 450-plus-touch seasons that should scare you, it's McCaffrey's own history of coming off 380-plus-touch seasons that should make you flinch. He's never had a so-so year -- it's always been dominant or disastrous with no in-between, and his health has been tied to his production every single time. At bare minimum, drafters should know what they're getting into when they trust McCaffrey with a top-12 pick. I'd draft him: No sooner than ninth overall in any format.
CBS Sports ADP: 30.6 FantasyPros ADP: 30.0 2025 Fantasy stats: 13.1 PPR points per game He's a bust because ... he's on a shaky offense with suspect coaches making suspect personnel decisions. For the second year in a row, Jets coach Aaron Glenn has insisted on using three running backs. That's perfect for new playcaller Frank Reich, who has habitually used one guy for rushing downs and another for passing downs (third downs, two-minute offense). Reich's history with RBs has been awful for Fantasy: Just four times in 10 seasons has a back averaged at least 13 PPR points under his playcalling. Geno Smith has been no prize for his running backs either -- Ashton Jeanty had to scrape and claw his way to 14.4 PPR points per game last year and that was the second-best average a RB has had in Smith's six seasons as a full-time starter. Drafting Hall with the expectation to land 13 PPR points per game is reasonable, but I'm not looking for that in Round 3 or really even Round 4. I'd draft him: Round 5
CBS Sports ADP: 39.6 FantasyPros ADP: 31 2025 Fantasy stats: 14.3 PPR points per game He's a bust because ... he's being overrated by Fantasy managers again. Flowers makes my bust list every year and I say the same thing every time: I love the talent, I hate the situation. While I expect this new Ravens offense to be a little less run-reliant, I also expect them to use tight ends quite a bit. That's in line with Declan Doyle's expected tendencies. Baltimore has also added big receivers in an effort to be more physical, which isn't exactly a trait Flowers possesses. Flowers turns up aces in games the Ravens find themselves passing a lot in, but I'm not sold on that specific game script being followed in even half of their games. Last year was Flowers' first averaging more than 13 PPR points per game despite three straight seasons of averaging between 6.8 and 6.9 targets per game. He's a good Fantasy receiver, but don't reach for him. I'd draft him: Round 4
CBS Sports ADP: 28.3 FantasyPros ADP: 39 2025 Fantasy stats: 14.3 PPR points per game in four games He's a bust because ... we have no idea how explosive he'll be, or if/when he'll be used as a full-time starter. Goes without saying that if Nabers is part of the regular practice routine for the Giants come August that he'll be off this list faster than when he ran a go route as a rookie. But until then we're talking about a player whose speed may have been compromised by the ACL and meniscus surgery he had this offseason. He's also coming back to a completely different offense that figures to be reliant on the run game, which has been the case for John Harbaugh's Baltimore offenses for nearly two decades. The best-case scenario might be Nabers being a solid Fantasy receiver in the second half of this season, in which case he'll drag down a lineup spot in the first eight or so weeks you're confident enough to start him. That drops his season-long upside drastically and makes him someone to trade for, not someone to draft, especially with a top 40 selection. I'd draft him: Round 4-5, unless he's clearly back to his old self
CBS Sports ADP: 60.8 FantasyPros ADP: 47 2025 Fantasy stats: 15.9 PPR points per game He's a bust because ... age and regression make for a rancid combination. We saw Adams battle through some nagging injuries last year, now he'll be 34 in December. And we saw Adams rack up 14 touchdowns,...
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