This is one outlet's own report from Newsweek — the article as it was filed. Other outlets are covering the same event; open the full story to compare every source side by side.
Trump Approval Rating Among Independents Sparks Midterm Warning Sign
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. President Donald Trump is facing a warning sign among independent voters , just as Democrats are posting one of their strongest generic ballot showings of the 2026 cycle, according to recent polling.
In two late-July polls, Trump was more than 50 points underwater among independents, with CNN/SSRS putting him at minus 52 and The Economist /YouGov at a second-term low of minus 53. YouGov also found his overall net approval at a record-low minus 28.
Independents can be decisive in competitive House districts and Republican candidates in swing seats could be affected if the midterms become a referendum on Trump rather than a district-by-district contest over local issues.
"No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, said in a statement.
"The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."
Midterms are not presidential elections, but they are often shaped by the president’s standing.
The president’s party has historically faced steeper House losses when the president is unpopular, and Gallup research has found that presidents below 50 percent approval saw their party lose an average of 37 House seats, compared with 14 seats for presidents above 50 percent.
The American Presidency Project’s midterm data shows that presidents with poor approval ratings have often seen their parties take heavy House losses, including Bill Clinton’s Democrats losing 54 seats in 1994, George W. Bush’s Republicans losing 30 in 2006, Barack Obama’s Democrats losing 63 in 2010 and Trump’s Republicans losing 41 in 2018.
Joe Biden was a notable exception in 2022, when Democrats lost just nine House seats and gained one Senate seat despite his weak approval ratings.
The two newest independent-voter readings are especially striking because they put Trump well below his overall national approval.
In a CNN/SSRS poll conducted from July 23 to 27, 24 percent of independents approved of Trump while 76 percent disapproved, giving him a net approval rating of minus 52 with the group.
The poll was conducted among 1,225 adults, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the full sample.
A separate The Economist /YouGov poll conducted from July 25 to 27 found Trump at 19 percent approval and 72 percent disapproval among independents, or minus 53 net approval, which is the lowest level he has recorded among this demographic in his second term.
YouGov’s survey included 1,559 U.S. adult citizens and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Trump’s overall approval in that poll was 34 percent, with 62 percent disapproving, tying his record low in The Economist /YouGov polling across either of his terms and giving him a record-low net job approval of minus 28 overall.
The trend line suggests this is not only a one-poll problem.
In the CNN/SSRS series, Trump was at minus 35 net approval among independents in July 2025, minus 44 in October, minus 41 in January 2026, minus 47 in February and March, then minus 52 in July.
The April reading of minus 70 was even lower, though it stands out sharply from the rest of the series.
The Economist /YouGov’s trend is steadier but points in the same direction. Trump was at minus 20 among independents in May 2025, minus 34 in July, minus 45 in October, minus 47 in November, minus 43 in June 2026 and minus 53 in July.
The independent-voter numbers arrive as Democrats are also leading in generic congressional ballot polling.
Emerson College Polling found Democrats ahead of Republicans by 11 points in July, 53 percent to 42 percent, among likely 2026 voters. Emerson College Polling said Trump held a 39 percent job approval rating in the same survey, while disapproval rose to 57 percent.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said women voters were “driving the Democrats’ significant lead,” with women breaking for the Democratic candidate by 56 percent to 39 percent, while men were more closely divided at 49 percent Democratic to 44 percent Republican.
The generic ballot is not a seat forecast. It does not measure candidate quality, redistricting or turnout in individual districts.
But it is a broad signal of the national mood, and Emerson College Polling’s July result was the strongest Democratic showing in the polling series, up from 44 percent Democratic to 42 percent Republican in July 2025.
If Trump remains deeply underwater among independents while Democrats continue to lead the generic ballot, Republicans may face pressure in the kinds of suburban and swing districts that often decide control of the House.
AIPROPX is an independent multi-source news index — we track, compare, and connect coverage from across the web into one place you won't find anywhere else.
