RESOLVING THE LEDGER
This is one outlet's own report from Newsweek — the article as it was filed. Other outlets are covering the same event; open the full story to compare every source side by side.
See the full story · 1 sources
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democrat Xavier Becerra held an 18-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton in a new poll of the California governor 's race released on Thursday.
Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run for a third term and Republicans face an uphill battle in the state, known as one of the most Democratic in the country. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won California by 20 points in the 2024 presidential race, a smaller margin than President Joe Biden’s 29-point victory four years earlier.
Becerra and Hilton emerged victorious from a contentious jungle primary in June and will face off in the November general election. Whoever wins will become the leader of the nation’s most populous state that under Newsom’s leadership has led opposition against President Donald Trump’s administration.
Becerra served as the secretary of Health and Human Services during the Biden administration and previously served as California’s attorney general and a member of Congress. Hilton is a conservative political commentator who served as an adviser to David Cameron, a former prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Becerra spokesperson Jonathan Underland responded to the poll, which was conducted by the University of California Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, in a statement to Newsweek.
“Today's poll is further confirmation that California voters support Secretary Becerra's focus on lowering the cost of living for California's working families and standing up against the hateful and disastrous policies pushed by Trump and his endorsed candidate, Steve Hilton,” Underland said.
Newsweek reached out to a spokesperson for Hilton via email for comment.
Becerra received the backing of 88 percent of Democrats , while 91 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Hilton. Among independents or those registered with other parties, 58 percent said they would vote for Becerra to 30 percent for Hilton, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 2,310 likely voters August 3-9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The previous Berkeley IGS poll survey of registered voters showed Becerra’s support at 52 percent to Hilton's 31 percent, with 17 percent undecided. It surveyed 8,578 registered voters May 19-24, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Other recent polls also show Becerra with a wide lead.
A Public Policy Institute of California survey, which surveyed 1,003 likely voters June 29-July 6, showed Becerra up 25 points, 61 percent to 36 percent. Meanwhile, a Kreate Strategies poll, which surveyed 900 likely voters June 13-17, also showed Becerra leading by 25 points, 58 percent to 33 percent.
Prediction markets also favor Becerra. As of Thursday, Becerra had a 95.5 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 93 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
As of December 30, 2025, Democrats had a significant advantage in party registration in California. According to the secretary of state’s office, there were 10,381,340 registered Democrats and 5,804,699 registered Republicans. An additional 5,231,189 did not have a party preference, while 1,674,870 were registered with other parties.
Democrats have won recent elections in California, but the governorship was once viewed as more competitive. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican to win a gubernatorial election in California, with a successful reelection bid in 2006. Four years later, the governorship flipped back to Democrats under Jerry Brown and has held steady ever since.
Newsom won in 2018 with nearly 62 percent of the vote and was reelected in 2022 with more than 59 percent.
California remains one of the most solidly Democratic states in the nation, though it shifted rightward in 2024 as Trump made inroads with Latino voters. Still, Democrats win overwhelmingly in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and other areas in the state, keeping it solidly in their hands in the latest cycles.
Democrats believe the state will remain in their hands in November as Trump’s approval rating slips nationally, but Republicans believe California voters are ready for change amid concerns around homelessness and the high cost of living.
Hilton previously told Newsweek that he believes 2026 could be the year California flips because of the “complete disaster” of homelessness in the state and poor education scores.
“I think it's just obvious that these 16 years of Democrat progressive governance have been an unmitigated disaster, and a very expensive one, because we pay the highest taxes for these terrible results,” he said in May. “When you add all that up, I think the case for change is overwhelming."
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball don’t view the race as competitive, with both classifying it as safe or solid for Democrats.
Polls will continue to be closely watched to gauge the mood of the electorate in California ahead of the November midterms . Hilton has challenged Becerra to a series of debates in the coming months, but it’s not clear when they will occur.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff .
AIPROPX is an independent multi-source news index — we track, compare, and connect coverage from across the web into one place you won't find anywhere else.