RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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With so much turnover, so many unbalanced schedules, and all of the changes in college football, which teams are projected to do far better than expected, and which ones are being a bit overloved? They’re the win totals, and here are the ten – plus a few extra – that stand out among the pack. Go here for our win total predictions for all 138 teams . Based on how good we think the teams are, their respective schedule strengths, and a few hopes and prayers that we’re seeing things clearly, here are our big calls going into the season.
Ten Best College Football Win Totals Going Into the 2026 Season
How did we do last year? The ninth and tenth spots will be explained in a moment, and we went 5-3 with the other eight picks. Nailed it on Cal over on 5.5 (six wins), USF over on 6.5 (nine wins), NC State over on 6.5 (seven wins), Mississippi State over on 3.5 (five wins), and Auburn under on 7.5 (five wins).
Whiffed on Middle Tennessee over on 4.5 (three wins), Cincinnati under on 6.5 (seven wins), and … nothing to see here on our No. 1 pick, Oklahoma State over on 5.5 (one lonely, sad win). The consensus win totals come from a combination of BetMGM, DraftKings, and what we would’ve set the line at. Every Conference’s Win Totals ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC AAC | CUSA | IND | MAC | MWest | Sun Belt
10. UMass Minutemen
Consensus Win Total: UMass 2.5 CFN Prediction : UMass 2-10 CFN Call: Over We start by going against our own prediction, mainly because, in some way, we have to stick with our annual belief system. Normally, we always take the over on a win total of 2.5, no matter what. Last year, Kent State rolled past it with five wins, and Charlotte didn’t – we went 1-1 on the totals. Once again, Charlotte is at 2.5, but it’s hard to find any game the 49ers will be favored in after a likely win over The Citadel. UMass has gone 2-24 over its last 26 games, and has just one season with more than two wins since 2018. So why is this pick here? Sacred Heart and Stonehill. The Minutemen get two FCS games early on, and should win them both. All it takes is the right day at Sacramento State, or at home against Akron, or if anything and everything clicks for the first win over an FBS team since 2023. On the flip side … – UMass 2026 Team Preview
9. Indiana Hoosiers, Miami Hurricanes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Oregon Ducks, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Consensus Win Total: 10.5 for all five CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 11-1, Indiana, Miami, Oregon, and Texas Tech 10-2 CFN Call: Under on all five How did the four teams that had a 10.5 win total before last year do? Ohio State got there with ease, but Oregon had to battle to do it. Penn State wasn’t even close, and you could’ve cashed out on Notre Dame after Week 2. It’s hard to win 11 regular season games. Miami almost won the national title after going 10-2. Ohio State went 10-2 and won it all the year before. All it takes is two losses – here are the nastiest games on each team’s slate. – Indiana : Ohio State, USC, at Michigan, at Washington – Miami : at Notre Dame, at Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Pitt – Notre Dame : Wisconsin (in Green Bay), at BYU, Miami, SMU – Oregon : at Ohio State, at USC, at Illinois, Michigan, Washington – Texas Tech : Arizona, Arizona State, Houston, TCU
8. Oklahoma Sooners
Consensus Win Total: 7.5 CFN Prediction: 10-2 CFN Call: Over I couldn’t scream loud enough last year that the Sooners were going to blow past their win total of 6.5 to seven – how were they not on our top ten list? After their ten-win campaign, I’m not making that mistake again. OU is better this season, and … it won’t be easy. At Michigan, at Georgia, Texas, at Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M – but the Sooners will be good enough to win ten again. – Oklahoma 2026 Team Preview
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
Consensus Win Total: 9.5 CFN Prediction: 12-0 CFN Call: Over If the total was 10.5, then yeah, the under might make sense with at Texas, at Indiana, at Iowa, at USC, and home dates against Oregon and Michigan to deal with. But 9.5? Nah. Besides 2020 – with a five-game regular season – when was the last time the Buckeyes failed to win at least ten regular-season games? 2011, when head coach Luke Fickell went 6-6 in the regular season before Urban Meyer took over. – Ohio State 2026 Team Preview
6. TCU Horned Frogs
Consensus Win Total: 6.5 CFN Prediction: 8-4 CFN Call: Over It’s tough to find six losses on the schedule without a meltdown. BYU and Utah are home games, and road dates at Arizona and Texas Tech will be tough, but this is a terrific team with enough talent to blow past seven wins – TCU has won eight or more regular season games in three of the last four years. – TCU 2026 Team Preview
5. Bowling Green Falcons
Consensus Win Total: 4.5 CFN Prediction: 5-7 CFN Call: Over Strictly a call on schedule, not talent, Eddie George’s team plays Tarleton State, Sacramento State, Ball State, at Buffalo, Kent State, and UMass. The Falcons might not be great, but there are five wins among those six games alone. – Bowling Green 2026 Team Preview
4. Sacramento State Hornets
Consensus Win Total: 4.5 CFN Prediction: 3-9 CFN Call: Under The program that went 7-5 last season isn’t just starting over from the head coach on down; it has to get through a far tougher schedule. It should beat Mississippi Valley State, and UMass and Kent State are possible home wins, but it’ll be hard getting to five wins in the inaugural FBS season. – Sacramento State 2026 Team Preview
3. Georgia Southern Eagles
Consensus Win Total: 4.5 CFN Prediction: 7-5 CFN Call: Ov...
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