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What Trump Will Want To See in Friday’s Jobs Report
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. President Donald Trump’s administration will be hoping for signals of job market resilience in the upcoming employment report from his Department of Labor, as price pressures continue to cast a shadow over other aspects of his economic agenda.
On Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its monthly Employment Situation Summary, containing the latest nonfarm payrolls data—the number of jobs the economy created last month—as well as a new reading on the national unemployment rate.
The June report came in below expectations , with only 57,000 jobs added, though the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent. Prior to this, job gains had significantly exceeded the forecasts of analysts for three consecutive months, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh saying the economy was exhibiting “ impressive resilience .”
According to forecasts from analysts ahead of the release, unemployment is expected to remain flat at 4.2 percent—compared to 4 percent when Trump returned to office last January—with the economy adding 80,000 new jobs. While an improvement from June, this would fall below this year’s average monthly gain of 92,000 and well shy of longer-term historical norms.
The administration will naturally be hoping that the figures exceed economists’ expectations—having in the past used stronger-than-expected data to trumpet Trump’s economic agenda in the face of skepticism.
Following May’s originally reported 172,000-job gain, the White House celebrated the findings, while Fox News economist Stephen Moore, a former campaign adviser to Donald Trump, argued the “blowout” figures were an endorsement of “Trumponomics.”
Success on employment is particularly pressing amid resurgent inflation and as polls show Americans increasingly grappling with cost pressures —testing claims from the administration that prices are easing .
A recent YouGov/ Economist poll found that only 30 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, with 65 percent disapproving for a net rating of negative 35—results reflected in surveys from Fox News, CNN/SSRS and AP-NORC and others in recent weeks.
And while unemployment remains low by historical standards and employers continue to add jobs—with occasional, monthly exceptions—a slowdown in hiring and downward revisions to past months’ data would fuel criticism from Democrats and concerns from voters about Trump’s stewardship of the U.S. economy.
Employment has taken a backseat to inflation in the Fed’s calculus, with the Fed chair highlighting employment as a sector exhibiting “solid growth.”
“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little,” Warsh said following last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, at which it opted to leave rates unchanged.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal,” he added. “The Committee remains resolute. You’ve heard this before, but we will deliver price stability.”
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