RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Scandals involving Republican Representatives Max Miller of Ohio, Cory Mills of Florida and Chuck Edwards of North Carolina threaten to imperil the GOP’s chances of holding onto control of the House of Representatives in the midterms .
Edwards, who represents a district that includes Asheville and Western North Carolina, withdrew from his race on Wednesday after the House Ethics Committee recommended that he be censured for his conduct toward young female staffers.
The North Carolina Republican’s withdrawal comes as Miller faces mounting calls to withdraw from the race after being accused of domestic abuse by his ex-wife, allegations he has denied. Meanwhile, two of Mills’ colleagues in Florida have endorsed a primary opponent against him after he faced a House Ethics Committee investigation into his conduct focusing on accusations of financial and sexual misconduct.
President Donald Trump won all three of their districts in 2024, but Democrats have viewed those races as having the potential to become competitive, particularly as Republicans face a difficult national environment driven by Trump’s declining national approval rating .
Control of the House could come down to just a handful of races in November, particularly because a redistricting arms race earlier this year resulted in fewer swing districts. That means these races becoming more competitive could create a new headache for Republicans heading into November.
Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told Newsweek that vulnerable House Republicans “mistakenly think that no matter how awful their behavior is, they are untouchable.”
“Voters in these districts are pissed over higher costs, Republicans’ broken promises, and are ready to reject these scandal-plagued members, who’ve made voters’ lives worse. Every single vulnerable Republican who has coddled and stood by these creeps should be ashamed of themselves, are unfit to serve, and will lose their job in November,” he said.
The main challenge for Republicans in these races is that a scandal can “dampen a party’s most active members from volunteering on a campaign, or a regular voter from voting at all,” Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek on Wednesday.
“That is the way they have the biggest impact—on energy, enthusiasm, and turnout,” he said.
Heightened political polarization makes it easier for parties to withstand these types of scandals, as many voters may still find voting for their opposing party a “bridge too far,” he said.
Still, these races could have strong implications for November, he said.
“With the Republican majority so narrow, any race that becomes competitive also becomes centrally important. So, a lot of potential difference,” he said.
Joshua Kennedy, professor of political science at Georgia Southern University, told Newsweek that Republicans have “no room for error,” but that these races are unlikely to be decisive.
“It could certainly swing these races (as troubling allegations helped swing the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama in 2018 did), but Democrats are likely making up enough ground elsewhere that I doubt it'll be the issue,” he said.
Miller, whose district includes rural and suburban areas near Cleveland, is facing allegations of domestic abuse from his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Republican Senator Bernie Moreno.
According to court filings and police interviews previously reported by multiple outlets, including The New York Times , Emily Moreno accused Miller of several instances of abuse, including allegations that he threatened her with a firearm and physically assaulted her. The New York Times reported that Moreno alleged Miller threw hot water from a skillet at her, held a gun to her head, pushed her against a wall and fractured their child’s collarbone.
Miller has denied all abuse allegations.
A Miller spokesperson previously wrote in a statement to Newsweek , “The facts speak for themselves: the court has continued to permit him joint custody of his child. If there were credible evidence supporting these outrageous accusations, that simply would not be the case. Congressman Miller will continue to vigorously defend his reputation against false and reckless allegations designed to inflame public opinion rather than reflect reality. This narrative has gone on long enough.”
Some Republicans are calling on Miller to exit the race , but he has thus far declined to do so as he faces a looming deadline to allow the party to select a new nominee .
On Wednesday, Miller’s Democratic opponent Brian Poindexter had a 68 percent chance of flipping the seat on Kalshi and a 69 percent chance of doing so on Polymarket. One month earlier, Miller had a 68 percent chance of winning reelection in Kalshi’s market. This is a district Trump won by 11 points in 2024.
Kennedy said he is “baffled” Republicans have not done more to get Miller to leave the race.
“Miller is accused of heinous acts, and the longer he stays in, the likelier it is Republicans will lose the seat. I do not think replacing him would be particularly problematic,” he said.
“What seemed like a race that was favoring Miller is now favoring the Democrat Poindexter as the scandal has hit the press,” he said.
Some Republicans have said he should leave the race. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas told Politico, "He should resign. He should quit.”
Edwards, who was facing a competitive race against Democrat Jamie Ager in a district Trump won by fewer than 10 points in 2024, announced Wednesday he would not be running for reelection .
“After much prayer and reflection, I’ve decided to withdraw from my re-election campaign. I will complete my current term. Serving Western North Carolina has ...
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