RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Four areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic and Pacific basins are being monitored by forecasters this week, with some systems showing signs they could organize into tropical depressions or tropical storms in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean and two more in the Pacific, including one system southeast of Hawaii that currently has the highest odds of development.
The heightened activity comes after an unusually quiet stretch in the Atlantic hurricane season. As of early August, only two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, had formed in the Atlantic basin, below what is typically expected as the season approaches its climatological peak between mid-August and mid-October. Last year, five named storms had formed up to this point. Forecasters have largely attributed the slowdown to a strengthening El Niño pattern, which increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean, making it difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.
The Pacific basin, however, is telling a different story. While El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, it often creates conditions that favor more tropical development across parts of the Pacific. So far this year, seven named storms have formed in the Eastern Pacific, including one major hurricane.
Newsweek reached out to the NHC by email for comment.
One of the Atlantic features under observation is an area of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. Currently, it is producing showers and thunderstorms, the most recent update from the NHC said.
"Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves eastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic," the update said.
The development's path is taking it away from the United States. It is expected to reach cool waters later this week, which will effectively end its chances of formation by Thursday.
Until then, the system faces a 10 percent chance of forming, both in the next 48 hours and the next seven days.
At this time, no coastal watches or warnings have been issued for the disturbance.
The next named storm in the Atlantic will be Cristobal.
Path: Trekking west-northwest, generally toward the Antilles.
The Atlantic system drawing the most attention is an area of low pressure around 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. AccuWeather has identified this system as a tropical wave.
The NHC has assigned this feature a high chance of development over the next seven days at 70 percent. It has a low chance, at 30 percent, of forming within the next 48 hours.
"Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic," the NHC said in a recent update.
No warnings or watches have been issued in connection with the disturbance.
The strongest development signal this week comes from the Central Pacific, where a broad area of low pressure roughly 1,100 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is currently producing showers and thunderstorms.
NHC meteorologists said this system is "nearly stationary," and will likely undergo further development in the coming days, with a tropical depression or storm expected to form as it moves northwest across the Central Pacific.
"Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system," the NHC forecast said.
The system faces a 60 percent chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance of doing so in the next seven days.
"Hawaii is on alert for a possible tropical storm or hurricane this weekend," Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll posted on X on Tuesday. "Huge amounts of moisture are forecast to be siphoned toward the islands from the record warm waters of the equatorial Pacific — which will probably elevate the flood threat."
Although no tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect, residents across Hawaii and surrounding Pacific waters will likely continue monitoring the system closely as forecasts are updated. A marine forecast issued for Hawaii said that the tropical storm, should it form, will possibly enter offshore Hawaii waters by Friday.
Path: Northwest, across open Pacific water
Another area being monitored is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula. The NHC says the disturbance is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms and could gradually become better organized in the next few days as the system moves northwest across the Eastern Pacific.
Forecasters have given the system a 40 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a 60 percent chance through the next seven days.
Because the projected track keeps the system over open ocean, there are currently no coastal watches, warnings or anticipated land impacts associated with it.
The Atlantic hurricane season traditionally enters its busiest period beginning in mid-August, and forecasters say activity could gradually increase in the coming weeks despite El Niño's suppressive influence. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to project a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season overall, but experts stress that even quiet seasons can produce dangerous landfalling storms.
For now, forecasters are keeping a close eye on four separate tropical disturbances spanning thousands of miles across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. While none currently poses an immediate threat to the U.S. mainland, the systems offer another reminder that peak hurricane season is rapidly app...
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