RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sources∗ Over the next 10 days, there will be plenty of trade talk surrounding the Red Sox. By virtue of their sudden reawakening and current position in the wild card standings, that’s inevitable.
If past practice holds, the Red Sox will be asked to give up some of their best prospects in exchange for more immediate help to the roster. That’s how the deadline works.
Just as predictably, there will also be fans screaming bloody murder over the mere mention of Franklin Arias, Anthony Eyanson, Justin Gonzales.
But they’ll be forgetting some important things. First, success at the big league level is not assured, no matter how highly-rated a prospect is. Marcelo Mayer has struggled mightily and Kristian Campbell is stuck at Triple A. Even Roman Anthony, who had been the consensus top prospect in the game a little more than a year ago, has not made a successful transition to the big leagues, injuries aside.
Baseball America researched the last decade of deadline deals and examined what became of the great prospects reluctantly surrendered. Know what percentage had posted even a 5.0 WAR? Seven.
Secondly, the Red Sox have been telling the fan base about their harvest of young stars-to-be for several seasons now and it hasn’t translated to on-field wins. Enough waiting and storing away players for the future.
Finally, the upcoming labor mess can’t be ignored. No one knows what the game will look like a year from now and under which rules teams will be playing. The only certainty is the present.
Given all of that, the Red Sox should feel free to be as aggressive as they need to be by Aug. 3. That doesn’t mean that they should casually deal away a terrific talent like Arias.
But they’re going to have to give something to get something in return and the league-wide mediocrity in the AL has thrown the postseason wide open.
Think of the prospects the organization has traded off in the last five or so years — have any really come back to haunt the Red Sox? Maybe one day they’ll regret dealing Kyle Teel or Braden Montgomery. But for now, they instead have one of the top starters in the game and he’s under control for the five years after this one.
If there’s a deal to be made to improve the Red Sox in a significant way, the Red Sox should make it — and worry about their prospect inventory later.
∗ Now that Arias is just a few stops on the Mass Pike away from Fenway, the watch will start for his promotion to Boston.
But keep in mind: Arias is not currently on the 40-man roster. If that remains the case when the lockout starts on Dec. 1, the Red Sox will be able to remain in touch with him throughout the winter and monitor his offseason. When spring training begins, Arias will be able to participate.
If the Sox call up Arias this season and put him on the 40-man, all of that goes away. They won’t be able to communicate with him in the winter, and like all other players on the 40-man, he’ll be locked out of spring training. That seems like a high price to pay for Arias to get a couple of weeks of big league experience in September.
∗ Among Celtics fans, there’s some whistling past the graveyard when it comes to LeBron James signing in Philadelphia. For now, there’s a question of how James will fit in with Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey etc., but they have plenty of time to figure all of that out.
Meanwhile, I’m with colleague Brian Robb: did the Celtics err in making the Brown trade with the Sixers when they did, which A) closed the door on James in Boston and B) made Philadelphia a more attractive destination?
∗ The Red Sox have more pressing needs than bullpen, but it’s almost a rite of passage that contending teams acquire a reliever or two at the deadline.
They could use another experienced lefty to help out in the seventh and eighth inning, someone with some swing-and-miss capability. The New York Mets’ Brooks Raley is available and would be a nice pickup at a reasonable cost. Raley is eligible for free agency after this season.
∗ Job security isn’t what it once was in the sports media business, but the way ESPN handled its recent round of layoffs was unbecoming. Several of those affected were unaware that they had been let go until they were contacted by reporters seeking comment. That’s bush league.
∗ Who knew that Boston was such a soccer hotbed? The market finished second, behind only Kansas City, in TV ratings for the World Cup. And Providence was ninth.
Almost makes you wonder how popular the Revolution could be if they were properly run
∗ Diego Pavia was cut by the Ravens before camp even began, which isn’t easy to do. In alienating people in record-time, Pavia is apparently trying hard to become the new Johnny Manziel.
∗ Chad Tracy’s emotional tribute to Rich Gedman during Tracy’s induction into the WooSox Hall of Fame was touching.
∗ The number of relievers on the Top 20 all-time saves list with relationships to the Red Sox is astonishing.
Nos. 3 through 5 — Kenley Jansen, Lee Smith and Craig Kimbrel – all pitched for the Red Sox. So, too, did Nos. 8-10 — Billy Wagner (briefly), Aroldis Chapman and Dennis Eckersley. So there’s six of the Top 10, who wore a Boston uniform.
Then there’s Nos. 12 and 13 – Jonathan Papelbon and Jeff Reardon. Finally, there’s No. 16, Rollie Fingers, who was sold to the Red Sox in June 1976 and actually joined them for a day before commissioner Bowie Kuhn disallowed the transaction (along with Joe Rudi to the Red Sox and Vida Blue to the Yankees) for not being “in the best interest of the game.”
Finally, there’s No. 17 John Wetteland, who was signed as a free agent by Dan Duquette coming out of the 1995 strike (along with Kevin Appier and Sammy Sosa), before the system that granted the three free agency was struck down in the courts.
In other words, eight of the Top 17 save compilers all-time pitched for the Sox, and two others came as close as possible.
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