RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Mike Norvell and the Florida State Seminoles aim to end a two-year bowl drought in 2026, and it begins in a Week 0 home matchup with the New Mexico State Aggies. The Seminoles went 13-1 in a stellar 2023 season, but followed it up with a shocking 2-10 dud before going in a better direction with a 5-6 finish in '25. FSU was picked to finish 11th in the 17-team ACC by coaches, but received three first-place votes. New Mexico State went 3-9 in 2024 for new coach Tony Sanchez, then 4-8 last year and hope to improve with a new QB and experienced defense. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $200 in bonus bets as a new user after $5+ in wagers here :
Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. The Seminoles are 31.5-point favorites in the latest New Mexico State vs. Florida State odds, while the over/under is 53 points. Before making any New Mexico State vs. Florida State picks, check out the New Mexico State vs. Florida State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model .
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 31-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to even better factor in the transfer portal to help nail college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites .
Now, the model has set its sights on New Mexico State vs. Florida State . You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks . Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for FSU vs. New Mexico State:
New Mexico State vs. Florida State spread
New Mexico State vs. Florida State over/under
New Mexico State vs. Florida State money line
New Mexico State vs. Florida State picks
New Mexico State vs. Florida State streaming
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After simulated New Mexico State vs. FSU 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Under (53.5 points) on the total. These teams combined to average 50.8 ppg in 2025, while allowing a combined 53. But the defense is expected to be the stronger unit for both the Seminoles and Aggies, with more experience and, in FSU's case, impactful transfers.
Each team still has standouts to watch on offense. Duce Robinson gained over 1,000 yards receiving last year for the Seminoles after two seasons at USC. The 6-foot-6 senior should be a key producer for FSU. Meanwhile, the Aggies found a new QB in the portal in Trey Hedden, who last season threw for nearly 3,000 yards with a 68% completion percentage at Furman. The model is projecting 53 combined points, making the Under the slight value side. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine .
In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins New Mexico State vs. Florida State, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 31-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks , and find out.
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