RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesLOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 30: Hunter Greene #21 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning during Game One of the National League Wild Card Series between the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, September 30, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Cincinnati Reds righty Hunter Greene put up a 6.0 bWAR season in 2024 and made the All Star team that year. Only making 26 starts that season limited him to only an 8th place finish in the National League Cy Young Award voting, and he backed that up by pitching to a 2.76 ERA and 4.2 bWAR during the 2025 season.
Among the 78 pitchers who threw at least 250 IP across those two seasons, Greene’s combined 2.76 ERA in that time ranked 6th. The names in front of him – Skenes, Skubal, Sale, Wheeler, Yamamoto – are the absolute elite of the elite in the sport today. In other words, he’s shown time and time again he’s among the absolute best pitchers on the planet…
…when he’s healthy.
With that as the backdrop, hearing that the Reds are fielding calls on Greene during this trade season after he’s pitched to an ugly 7.06 ERA (3.20 FIP) in just 4 starts this year after the second major elbow surgery of his pro career is somewhat expected. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relayed earlier on Thursday that the Reds are drawing ‘significant interest’ in Greene , and why wouldn’t they right now? If ever there were a time to go after a guy who’s been so high, it’s right now, when Greene has stumbled a bit after a three-month layoff and the Reds are once again mired in last place.
Rival teams are obviously hoping that the price to acquire Greene right now is way, way less than it would’ve been, say, at the end of 2025 before anyone knew he was headed for cleanup surgery on the elbow. They also know he’s under team control through 2029 at an incredibly manageable price, precisely the kind of pitcher any team in the sport would love to acquire (while looking right past his two ugly starts since his return and more towards the overall back of his baseball card).
That the Reds also just dropped $105 million guaranteed on Chase Burns has to have perked up the ears of GMs across the league. For a team that’s not really ever geared to carry multiple significant contracts on their books, that could, in the eyes of many, make Greene look more expendable.
Moving Greene would obviously require a massive haul of quality prospects, with at least one of them being deemed both elite and big league ready. You simply don’t even begin to carve Greene off a roster with Burns, Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, and Andrew Abbott unless you’re both retooling the minors and getting someone who can help the team win more games than they lose while Elly’s still on the team. Navigating that is a logistical nightmare, but Greene would be, in theory, the kind of guy who may be able to warrant such a return if the Reds can sell their peer on the idea that he will be 100% healthy all the time going forward.
That’s especially true if a team swings hard for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal this deadline, misses out, and needs to pivot to the next best arm they can find.
To me, though, it’s a slippery slope. I see a Reds club that has Burns/Greene/Abbott atop a rotation for 2027 that should also feature Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, and room for a free agent addition after Brady Singer moves on. The lineup looks woefully thin behind Elly and Sal, with only JJ Bleday and Spencer Steer theoretically penciled in for spots beside them. Still, they’ve got money coming off the books in the form of Singer, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson, and the inevitable non-tender of TJ Friedl, and you’ve got to think there’s at least a little bit of gumption in the front office to put some sort of contender together while you’ve got a star like Elly still under team control.
I don’t expect the Reds to trade Greene right now while his value is at a nadir, but I also don’t expect the rumors to stop. What will be more telling, I think, is what they’ll choose to do with him this winter if Greene returns to form and pitches like an ace again down the stretch in 2026.
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