RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesIran spent the two months since it signed a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities with the US preparing for ramped-up fighting rather than diplomacy, according to a Sunday night report.
The 60-day negotiation period set in the MOU, which Israel isn't party to, expires on Monday, with the sides having failed to make progress toward ending the war, instead engaging in intermittent bouts of fresh fighting.
The Wall Street Journal, citing Iranian and Arab officials, said Tehran believed the US and Israel were themselves merely buying time for a future attack, while allowing the global economy to recover from the pressure of the previous round of fighting.
Therefore, over the past 60 days, Iran has ramped up production of missiles and drones and tapped hardline figures to key positions, the report said.
The WSJ report asserted that Arab intelligence officials have pointed to a "strategic shift" among Iranian leadership to "get their forces ready to widen the war."
Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst, told the newspaper that "there is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun.”
Israel launched its campaign against Iran on February 28, alongside the US, to degrade the Iranian regime's military capabilities, tackle threats posed by Iran — including its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — and "create the conditions" for the Iranian people to topple the regime, Israeli leaders said.
Since the ceasefire under the June MOU deal broke down, Iran has resumed attacks on ships it accuses of trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz without authorization. The strait has become a central flashpoint between Washington and Tehran in efforts to end the war.
While Iran pursued diplomacy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also sent advisers to discuss plans with its proxies in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon to escalate the regional conflict, the report said, citing officials familiar with recent Arab intelligence findings.
Ahead of a Houthi escalation with the Saudis in July, the IRGC provided the Yemeni rebel group with target lists including Saudi ports and energy sites and advised them on defensive strategies, the report said.
On July 20, the Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea in response to what the rebels described as a Saudi siege of Yemen, an allegation Riyadh denies.
A Saudi-led coalition responded to the blockade with air strikes on what Riyadh said were Houthi military facilities in the port city of Hodeidah linked to threats against commercial shipping. The Houthis have claimed to attack Saudi oil facilities in response.
The Houthi naval blockade complemented Iran’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the IRGC has also sent detailed target lists of energy facilities to its Arab neighbors, threatening to strike them if the US hits its energy sites, the officials told the Journal.
Trump has repeatedly threatened large-scale strikes on Iran but then backed off, citing progress in talks.
He has also repeatedly insisted that the Strait of Hormuz is under US control even though traffic remains throttled.
Before the war, the strait carried around a fifth of the world's oil and LNG exports, and prices have repeatedly surged since the dispute over the waterway erupted, piling economic and political pressure on Washington.
Tehran signalled last week that it had agreed with Oman on a route for ships to transit the strait and the two countries were finalizing arrangements to jointly manage the waterway.
Indirect contact between the two sides via mediators has continued with little sign of a diplomatic breakthrough. Iran has also set out a list of demands for reopening the strait, including payment for war damages.
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