RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The U.S. and Iran have paused their daily attacks on each other, but the war is not on hold as other forces are expanding the battle space.
On Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky made a point of announcing that Ukraine attacked a cargo ship ferrying military supplies between Iran and Russia in the Caspian Sea . He also ordered Ukraine’s intelligence service to share information on Russia’s assistance to Iran, namely satellite images of Gulf states and U.S. bases there.
“These images subsequently appear in Iran. At the same time, there is a clear correlation between Russia’s satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes — both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted,” Zelensky posted on X .
Iran insisted it’s not involved in Russia’s war on Ukraine, though Kyiv has said Tehran is supplying drones to its ally. The Islamic republic also urged European countries to hold Ukraine accountable.
Ukraine’s strike prompted speculation in Tehran that it was meant as a warning to demonstrate Iran’s Caspian coast is at risk and could be leveraged in talks with the U.S., according to the Financial Times .
That’s as diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran continues after their memorandum of understanding collapsed, resulting in nearly two weeks of daily attacks that stopped on Friday.
Meanwhile, Oman and Iran are engaged in separate talks over the Strait of Hormuz, and sources told the Associated Press a deal is being negotiated that centers around having Iran run vessel transit with fewer restrictions on ships.
Although the Caspian Sea is more than 600 miles from the front line in Russia’s war, Ukraine has developed long-range drones that have been used to devastating effect deep inside Russian territory.
After ravaging Russia’s oil infrastructure and creating a nationwide fuel shortage, that capability could become a major factor in the U.S.-Iran war.
Azerbaijan and Iran naval warships take part in joint naval exercises in the Caspian Sea in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 4, 2024. Azerbaijan Defense Ministry / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the think tank SWP Berlin, ran through different interpretations of Ukraine’s strike on the Iranian ship.
One is that Ukraine wants to demonstrate its value as a partner to the U.S., which supplies vital weapons like Patriot air-defense interceptors, adding that the operation couldn’t have happened without a green light from Washington and other Western partners, he explained on X .
Another view is that Israel and the U.S. asked Ukraine to pressure Iran on their behalf amid concerns that any attacks they make on Iranian infrastructure would trigger retaliation against regional economic assets.
A third interpretation is that Ukraine’s attack was in response to Houthi rebels threatening ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which Saudi Arabia has relied on to export its oil and bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is another vital shipping chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The Iran-backed Houthis hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea this past week, causing Saudi Arabia to strike the Yemeni port city of Hodeida.
“In other words, the Caspian front, together with the Indian Ocean — where the United States has imposed a maritime blockade on Iran — is now intended to complete a ring of economic and military pressure around the country,” Azizi wrote.
He added that Iran is also worried Ukrainian intelligence services may support ethnic insurgent groups against Tehran, similar to Kyiv’s approach in Syria against the Assad regime.
To respond to Ukraine’s involvement, Iran could launch its own direct attacks against Ukraine-linked vessels in other sea lanes or against Ukrainian infrastructure. Tehran could also recognize Crimea and the Donbas as parts of Russian territory.
“In any case, what is clear is that Iran’s war is becoming increasingly intertwined with two other conflicts: the Saudi-Houthi confrontation and the Russia-Ukraine war,” Azizi warned. “With each passing day, the war is evolving into an increasingly complex, multidimensional, and international conflict.”
Ukraine is already a player in the Middle East, signing a security agreement with Saudi Arabia in March to provide the kingdom with expertise Kyiv has developed in defending against Iranian-designed drones supplied to Russia. Zelensky also made visits to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to reach similar agreements
The Caspian Sea, which has become a key supply route amid the U.S. naval blockade, was also the scene of some fighting earlier in the Iran war.
Amid reports that Russia was providing Tehran with ammunition, drones, and other weapons, Israel attacked the Iranian port of Bandar-e Anzali on the Caspian Sea, according to the Wall Street Journal .
University of Pittsburgh political science professor William Spaniel said in March that the blurring of the battle lines “effectively merged the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran war into a single conflict.”
“We are still not at a true world war as there is no one actor fighting on two fronts simultaneously like the United States during World War II,” he added in a video on his YouTube channel . “But it is further connecting the battlefield outcomes, and it will have longer-lasting implications for how the battle lines are divided.”
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