RESOLVING THE LEDGER
This is one outlet's own report from Phys.org — the article as it was filed. Other outlets are covering the same event; open the full story to compare every source side by side.
See the full story · 1 sources
edited by Gaby Clark , reviewed by Andrew Zinin
This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies . Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility:
Add as preferred source A new study from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego finds that improved weather and water forecasts could help California gain more value from existing reservoirs and help meet a new water supply target.
The study, led by Scripps economist Tom Corringham and staff researcher Denali Pinto, estimates that a reservoir operation system co-led by Scripps, state, federal and local water authorities could save the state between $100 million and $200 million per year in the form of added water available to meet agricultural, urban and household needs. Corringham said ripple effects from recreation, power generation, enriched fishery stocks and improved flood risk management make that a conservative estimate.
"California's water challenge will require many different solutions," said Corringham. "Our research shows that smarter operation of existing reservoirs could make a meaningful contribution."
More precise reservoir management could yield an extra 100–160 billion gallons a year, enough for more than a million households. That benefit, however, only gets the state partway to a new supply goal announced this summer.
California has the most variable climate in the United States, with its entire annual water supply sometimes coming from two or three major winter storms. In anticipation of potentially greater vulnerability in the future, the California State Legislature directed the California Department of Water Resources to modernize the California Water Plan and set a water-supply planning target for the first time in state history. California will seek to identify 9 million acre-feet (2.9 trillion gallons) of additional water supply by 2040.
The study appears in the journal Environmental Research: Water .
The 12-year-old Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) program is led by CW3E in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), California Department of Water Resources and local water agencies. FIRO uses improved observations and forecasts of atmospheric rivers, precipitation and reservoir inflows to give reservoir operators greater flexibility in storing and releasing water.
When forecasts show that a major storm is approaching, operators can release water in advance to create space for the expected inflow. When forecasts indicate low flood risk, they may be able to retain more water than would be permitted under traditional fixed, calendar-based operating rules. The goal of the FIRO program is to improve water availability and water-supply reliability without increasing flood risk.
The researchers estimate that FIRO could increase water storage by approximately 315,000 acre-feet, or more than 100 billion gallons, per year across 20 of California's largest reservoirs. Estimated gains increase to nearly 500,000 acre-feet (162 billion gallons) in wet years, enough for more than a million households.
"The challenges facing California water management will require embracing many new innovative solutions," said Mike Anderson, state climatologist for the California Department of Water Resources. "Making sure that the state's existing reservoirs are operated efficiently using the latest forecasting technology will be a key tool for water managers to manage extreme conditions in the future."
The study evaluated 20 reservoirs accounting for more than 20 million acre-feet of existing storage, representing about 50% of the state's surface water storage capacity. The analysis builds on FIRO pilot and implementation efforts at Lake Mendocino, Prado Dam, Lake Oroville and New Bullards Bar, along with expansion studies at other reservoirs in California and across the western United States.
"Atmospheric rivers can rapidly shift California from water scarcity to flood risk," said CW3E Director Marty Ralph, a co-author of the study. "FIRO turns advances in atmospheric river observations and forecasting into practical decisions about when water can be safely stored and when it needs to be released."
FIRO's impact to date at a pilot project has already led to substantial water savings, officials noted. At a recent FIRO summit, Major General Jason Kelly, USACE deputy commanding general for civil and emergency operations, noted that all levels of government "have an absolute obligation to maximize the utility and the yield of our existing infrastructure."
"By using FIRO, we were able to safely retain enough water to supply approximately 250,000 homes for an entire year," said Kelly. "Think about that for a second. That is an economic value of roughly $125 million, just from operating smarter. We didn't pour new concrete. We didn't build a new dam. We used better science."
CW3E's atmospheric river research includes aircraft reconnaissance over the Pacific Ocean, drifting buoys, land-based observations, specialized forecast models and decision-support tools developed in partnership with water-management agencies. These observations and forecasting advances provide part of the scientific foundation for FIRO. For the first time, this study quantifies a share of the benefits of these investments.
The researchers also examined a higher-gain scenario in which forecast-informed operations increased water availability by 5% of gross reservoir capacity. That would provide approximately 1 million acre-feet of additional water and nearly $460 million per year in direct agricultural and urban benefits. Achieving gains of that magnitude would depend on conditions at individual reservoirs and could involve better forecasting, operational changes, targeted capital improvements and coordination with managed aquifer recharge.
The researchers recommend detailed rese...
AIPROPX is an independent multi-source news index — we track, compare, and connect coverage from across the web into one place you won't find anywhere else.