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Dodgers’ Slugger May Have Finally Found His Fix
Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers drops his bat before rounding the bases after hitting a solo home run during the third inning of the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 25, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) Getty
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 25: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the third inning of the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 25, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) Getty
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 24: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers follows through on his eighth inning two run home run against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 24, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) Getty
Kyle Tucker’s season with the Los Angeles Dodgers has looked nothing like the superstar arrival the club expected after committing four years and $240 million to him.
Entering Tuesday, Tucker was batting .239 with a .334 on-base percentage, .376 slugging percentage, and nine home runs across 97 starts. His 97 OPS+ made him essentially league-average, an alarming drop for a four-time All-Star who posted a 134 OPS+ with the Chicago Cubs in 2025.
Yet a new breakdown from MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggests Tucker’s problems may be both less mysterious and more fixable than his numbers indicate.
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Tucker’s Missing Barrels Explain the Decline
Getty NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 25: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the third inning of the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 25, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
Petriello found no catastrophic change. Tucker’s strikeout rate rose from 15% to 19%, his walk rate fell from 15% to 12%, and his chase rate increased. Each figure remains respectable by MLB standards, but the combination has prevented Tucker from producing his usual premium contact.
The most revealing number is his barrel rate. It dropped from 11% of batted balls in 2025 to approximately 7% this season. Tucker has recorded 19 barrels, roughly 13 fewer than Petriello estimated he would normally have produced by late July.
The difference is enormous because Tucker remains destructive when he barrels the ball. His average and slugging percentage on barrels this season are .684 and 2.316, respectively. On non-barreled contact, his 2026 results are nearly identical to last year’s.
Petriello calculated that restoring only 12 missing barrels, using Tucker’s normal outcomes, would lift his slash line to .253/.344/.440 with a .784 OPS—approximately 20% better than league average.
Baseball Savant offers another encouraging clue. Tucker’s .338 expected wOBA is 21 points higher than his actual .317 mark, suggesting some underperformance. Still, his 38.9% hard-hit rate and 6.8% barrel rate confirm that diminished impact is not merely bad luck. His defense has also slipped to minus-5 Outs Above Average.
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Mets Series Offered a Possible Breakthrough
Getty NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 24: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers follows through on his eighth inning two run home run against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 24, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
The Dodgers may have seen the correction begin at Citi Field. After going two weeks without a barrel, Tucker produced three in two games, including home runs on consecutive nights. His second homer left the bat at 107.7 mph, his hardest-hit ball in more than a year.
“I feel a lot better,” Tucker told FOX after Saturday’s win.
There are other encouraging signs. Tucker’s strikeout rate fell from 27% in June to just 11% so far in July, while his bat speed rebounded after reaching a four-year low in May and June. Moving him down to seventh in the order may also have reduced the pressure, even if two games cannot prove causation.
His home-road split remains unresolved: an .804 OPS away from Los Angeles and .607 at Dodger Stadium. But if better swing decisions restore Tucker’s missing barrels, his season can turn quickly. For a Dodgers team built for October, those few high-value swings may matter far more than four disappointing months.
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Kyle Tucker’s DodgersStatcastMetsKyle TuckerLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsCiti FieldNew York CityPhotoDustin SatloffGetty ImagesGetty
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