RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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After a disappointing July payrolls report that showed the economy lost jobs that month, traders on prediction market platforms think August will show a rebound in hiring, though potentially not as strong as economists think.
Speculators on Kalshi see 50-50 odds that more than 50,000 jobs were created last month. That implies a slightly lower outlook than Dow Jones consensus estimate for 53,000 jobs created in August.
On the contracts on the market, traders are asked whether they think the U.S. added more than a certain number of jobs in the month. The contracts are resolved using official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Prediction market traders on Polymarket give a 48% likelihood the economy created more than 50,000 jobs in August.
For two months in a row, prediction market traders and economists have overestimated payroll numbers. Both expected job creation numbers in the six figures in June — when they actually came in just below 60,000 — and for the economy to create jobs in July when it ended up losing them.
Given that, traders on Kalshi see a wide range for a beat or miss. Speculators on the platform see about 1-in-4 odds for a contract that implies the U.S. actually lost jobs last month, and a similar likelihood for another contract that asks if the country created more than 80,000 jobs in the period.
The August employment reading will be delivered at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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