RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 4 sourcesPALO ALTO, CA - NOVEMBER 29: Leonard Moore #15 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and DeVonta Smith #0 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrate a turnover on downs during a game against the Stanford Cardinal on November 29, 2025 at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, CA. (Photo by Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Marcus Freeman was the clear favorite to replace Brian Kelly as the head coach of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Freeman, a former Ohio State linebacker, was Kelly’s DC at Cincinnati and then at Notre Dame. Freeman had the pedigree to take over for BK when he took off for LSU and an expected National Championship.
Kelly flopped at LSU and was pushed out the door and Freeman took the Irish to the CFBPO National Championship Game in 2024. Overall, Freeman has posted a 43-12 record over four seasons in South Bend.
Even with the success of the ‘24 season ( 14-2 ) he has managed to drop some easy games (Marshall, Northern Illinois) and blow it in a few tough situations (Ohio State). And then the Irish sat out of their Pop-Tarts Bowl invite in ‘25 like sore losers… not a great look for a head coach (not program) that I have a ton of respect for.
Now let’s put the Irish through The Goal , our 2026 Summer Scheming analysis system .
Throughput
Acquisition: The last three Irish prep recruiting classes average to 9th overall. Their portal classes are 36th which puts their acquisition at 22nd in the country.
Development: Over the past two draft classes ND has put 21 players into the NFL, a number rivaled by only Miami themselves in regards to the ‘Canes talent vs. their 2026 schedule. Miami has 22 in the league since 2025, Clemson has 18 .
Deployment: This preseason Bill Connelly’s SP+ has ND ranked 3rd in overall SP+. The Irish offense is 3rd , the defense is 9th , and the kicking game is 47th . OC Mike Denbrock and DC Chris Ash both return for ‘26.
Bottleneck
Is there really a bottleneck stopping ND from being successful in 2026 besides themselves? A year ago ND lost two games all season by a combined four points. That was a three point loss to the Hurricanes and a one point loss to Texas A&M. But because ND isn’t in a conference, and with 9 -win Boise State and USC being their ‘best’ wins… the Irish were snubbed from the CFB Playoff.
If the Irish would join the ACC they would have a shot at a conference championship…. well now that the rules have been skewed in favor of ND ONCE AGAIN does it even really matter? If they’re ranked 12th or higher they’re in the playoff regardless of quality of wins, poor losses (NIU, Marshall) or anything else that matters.
The Irish strength of schedule is 42nd of 138 in FBS per CFB News . Miami, SMU and BYU are doing a lot of heavy lifting for that SOS.
Inventory
The inventory space includes returning production per Bill Connelly , the On3 top-100 list and the Athlon preseason All-Conference Team honorees. ND is ranked 1st in returning production. They return 72 % from a year ago even without Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price. The starting 22 should feature only two transfers, both on defense, and the Irish have only seven transfers on their two-deep.
The Irish have five On3 top-100 players and three Athlon All-Americans (I used AA because of their independent status).
ND returns QB CJ Carr who improved tremendously over the ‘25 season. Carr threw 24 TD’s with only six INT’s in his debut season. Two of his favorite targets return for ‘26 in Jordan Faison ( four TD’s), and the return of Jaden Greathouse from injury ( 18.3 ypc).
On defense, welcome back CB Leonard Moore the 3rd best player in the nation per On3. Moore picked five passes with seven PBU’s in ‘25. DE Boubacar Traore also returns with 10.5 TFL’s and 6.5 sacks last season. ND is the only team on Miami’s schedule that can compete with the ‘Canes in infrastructure, facilities, NIL, and talent on the field.
Operating Expense
Marcus Freeman has been such a successful head coach that he’s only costing Notre Dame around $ 1M per win, even though his salary is expected to be over $ 10M per season. The ND coach averages 10 wins per year, which is on par with Dabo Swinney . Freeman is well worth whatever the Irish are paying him and should do everything in their power to keep him from the NFL or Ohio State if Ryan Day ever leaves Columbus.
The Goal
The Goal in South Bend should always be the College Football Playoff under Marcus Freeman. This season I think a final four appearance should be the floor for ND. Of their three tough games only one is on the road in BYU. The other two, SMU and Miami, are home games for Freeman’s Irish.
Season Prediction: 11-1 . ND might lose to BYU and beat Miami. They might beat BYU and Miami and drop a silly game, or the game to SMU. I can see the Irish being a perfect 12-0 , but Freeman has to prove he can avoid his annual hiccup this season.
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