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Two of the NWS' reported potential storms have just a 10 percent chance of formation over the next seven days. But a Tropical Storm in the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic has a 20 percent chance of forming within the next 48 hours, and a 60 percent chance of forming within the next seven days. The storm is potentially forming thanks to an area of low pressure south of the Cape Verde Islands, which is expected to merge with a tropical wave currently over West Africa.
The impending storm could create a tropical depression during the latter half of this week, per the NWS. The system will move westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
For now, the system is far from the Gulf Coast and poses no immediate threat to Texas. Its eventual track and strength will become clearer if it develops in the coming days.
MONDAY TROPICS UPDATE - Three chances of development remain in the Atlantic this morning. The highest chance is south of the Cabo Verde Islands and will likely become a tropical depression in the latter part of this week. It's still too early for any more specifics on this… pic.twitter.com/FaLvqAm1Qo
This week's potential Tropical Storm is a relative rarity in a quiet storm and hurricane season thus far.
There are just two named storms ( Tropical Storm Bertha and Tropical Storm Arthur ) to date in the 2026 hurricane season to date. The Colorado State University (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science, the nation's leader in hurricane forecasting, predicts there will be seven additional named storms through the end of November, a below-usual rate for a typical hurricane season.
CSU’s latest report last week predicted a nine percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast through the rest of hurricane season. That is well below the full-season average from 1880 to 2020, when each year brought on average a 27 percent chance of a hurricane in the gulf coast. The entire U.S. coastline has a 16 percent chance of being struck by a major storm in 2026, down from the previous 140-year average of 43 percent.
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