RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Abdul El-Sayed is entering the final weekend of Michigan ’s Democratic Senate primary with a double-digit advantage over Representative Haley Stevens, according to a new poll that adds to signs of late momentum for the progressive candidate.
El-Sayed leads Stevens 54.8 percent to 45.2 percent in The Public Sentiment Institute’s projected result for the August 4 Democratic primary.
The poll suggests younger and more progressive Democrats are powering El-Sayed’s lead, while older voters remain Stevens’ best route to a closer result.
Whoever wins is set to face Republican Mike Rogers, the presumptive Republican nominee, in one of the most competitive Senate races of the 2026 midterms .
The race is being closely watched because Gary Peters is retiring. President Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2024, and Republicans, who view the seat as one of their clearest Senate pickup opportunities, have not won a U.S. Senate race there since 1994.
Ballotpedia lists the race as a Toss-up, while a Glengariff Group poll commissioned by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan, conducted July 22 to 24 among 600 likely November voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 points, found Stevens essentially tied with Rogers, 45.5 percent to 44.7 percent, while Rogers led El-Sayed 49.0 percent to 38.7 percent.
Republicans see that as an opening. A GOP official told Newsweek that the party is "very bullish on the Senate" and identified Michigan as "a very good pickup opportunity," pointing to the state’s open Democratic-held seat and the late Democratic primary fight as potential advantages for Rogers.
Speaking more broadly, however, Democratic National Committee (DNC) spokesperson Jaelin O’Halloran told Newsweek that Trump and Republicans had created a "toxic midterm environment" by driving up costs, while Democratic candidates were "on the ground, showing up and listening to voters."
A DNC official also pointed to Democratic overperformance in special elections and state legislative races as evidence of voter enthusiasm heading into November.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of El-Sayed and Stevens via email, and Rogers via website contact form for comment on Saturday morning outside of regular working hours.
The contest has become a test of two theories about how Democrats can win in a swing state.
Stevens’ allies argue she is the safer November candidate, with a record in Congress and support from much of the party establishment.
El-Sayed’s supporters argue that Democrats need a candidate who can energize younger voters, progressives and voters frustrated by outside money in politics.
The new poll does not remove all uncertainty. It does, however, make clear that Stevens now needs either a polling miss, unusually strong older-voter turnout, or a late break among undecided voters to overcome El-Sayed’s advantage.
The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) survey gives El-Sayed the sort of late lead campaigns want: he is ahead before undecided voters are allocated, ahead after they are allocated, and still ahead after the poll screens for likely voters.
Among registered Democratic voters, El-Sayed led 49.7 percent to 36.0 percent. Among likely voters, his edge narrowed to 47.6 percent to 39.5 percent. That tightening is the most important part of the poll.
It suggests El-Sayed has broader support across the Democratic electorate, but Stevens benefits when it is modeled around voters most likely to turn out in an August primary.
The age split explains much of that. Voters 65 and older made up 39.8 percent of the registered Democratic universe in the TPSI poll, but 48.9 percent of its projected likely electorate. That matters because older voters are Stevens’ strongest group.
TPSI said its survey gives El-Sayed a 96 percent probability of leading the field, while cautioning that the exact size of the lead is less certain.
Depending on how old Tuesday’s electorate turns out to be, the pollster said its model puts the margin anywhere from roughly five to 15 points.
The TPSI result follows several late surveys showing El-Sayed ahead.
Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV found him leading 54 percent to 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, with 6 percent undecided. Including undecided voters who leaned toward a candidate, El-Sayed led 57 percent to 41 percent.
That survey also showed a sharp age divide. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said voters under 50 broke for El-Sayed by 42 points, while voters over 60 favored Stevens by 14 points.
A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted by The Glengariff Group from July 8 to 11 found Stevens leading 48.2 percent to 41.4 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.
That earlier result is why the race should not be described as settled. But the public polling since then has mostly moved toward El-Sayed, and the undecided share has fallen.
Prediction markets are not polls. They reflect trader expectations, not voter interviews, and can move quickly when new surveys come out.
Still, they now point strongly in the same direction as the late polling. Polymarket listed El-Sayed at 97 percent in its Michigan Democratic Senate primary winner market, with the market’s most active listing showing heavy expectation of an El-Sayed win.
Meanwhile, Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, also showed his chances at 97 percent at the time of writing.
That does not guarantee the result, especially in a primary where turnout composition is everything. But it does show how sharply expectations have moved against Stevens in the final days.
Outside spending has helped define the race. Mother Jones, citing federal records, reported that groups benefiting Stevens had accounted for more than $60 million i...
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