RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Updated at 1:40 p.m. ET on August 26, 2026.
F or months, President Trump has been unable to bring the conflict with Iran to a close. A massive bombing campaign lost its effectiveness, and U.S. munitions supplies ran low. Diplomacy lagged, as leaders in Tehran remained content to deliberately prolong the process and harden their control over the Strait of Hormuz. Even the current pseudo-cease-fire—as deeply uneasy as it is—has done little to meaningfully lower the cost of energy around the globe.
With few options remaining, the Trump administration has settled into a potentially lengthy campaign of economic pressure , pledging to squeeze Iran until its leaders have no choice but to seriously return to negotiations. But that tack could prove toothless if the U.S. doesn’t also punish the nations that still do business with Iran and keep its economy afloat—and Trump has historically shown little willingness to stand up to the likes of China and Russia, or even North Korea, which has a strategic alliance with Tehran.
If nothing else, the new approach allows the White House to say it’s trying something and then—importantly—to stop talking about the war. Part of the plan, Trump advisers and allies tell us, is to try to push Iran to the background, while hoping that gas prices come down even a little and that Republicans can shift the nation’s focus to more politically palatable topics ahead of the midterms.
That won’t change the reality on the ground in the Middle East: Alliances have been strained , the U.S. military has been overtaxed, and Iran wields far more power in the region than it did at the beginning of the war, about six months ago. But it could allow Trump, a master of distraction, to turn to other priorities—a trade war with Canada! Claims of election fraud! His skill at flagpoles !—to try to save at least one chamber of Congress for his party this fall.
“We’re just trying to hang on until the midterms,” one Trump adviser told us.
A t this moment , strategists in both parties believe that the Democrats are favored to capture the House. And despite a GOP-friendly Senate map, the upper chamber is viewed as a toss-up. Trends were already working against Republicans: Traditionally, the party out of power tends to do well in the midterms, and over the past decade, Trump supporters have seemed less inclined to vote when his name isn’t on the ballot. The president hasn’t done much to help, and his poll numbers have plunged, even on the economy and immigration, his usual strengths. Republicans, fearing hostility, have largely opted to forgo town halls this summer, skipping what tends to be an effective way to reach constituents. A few of those who have held gatherings in their districts have faced anger and tough questions about Iran, including why the U.S. launched the war in the first place.
[ Read: The forever negotiation ]
Republicans have been urging the White House to wrap up the conflict and reduce its drag on the nation’s economy—and their reelection chances. But a solution has proved elusive. Trump’s goals for the conflict were never well enunciated and have shifted many times. Gone are lofty promises about regime change or preventing Iran from having a nuclear program. Instead, the president has privately told his political allies that once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, he is inclined to simply declare victory and move on, one outside adviser and a senior administration official told us on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. But even that has proved vexing: Iran has continued to menace ships traveling through the strait and has insisted upon charging a fee or toll. Other countries in the region have declared that unacceptable—the strait was, after all, open and free before the war—though Trump has waffled on whether or not he could live with it. The president said yesterday that the last of the Iranian mines had been removed from the channel, but an official from a country in the region stressed to us that even if that were to remain true, Iran could still terrorize ships with small boats, handheld rocket launchers, and drones.
Republicans have signaled to the White House their approval of its new economic pressure campaign, which was announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week. The White House’s political shop hopes the plan creates a quiet stranglehold—Bessent deemed it “economic asphyxiation”—that could make steady progress in resolving the conflict while having the added bonus of keeping it out of the headlines. (Trump’s bellicose threats toward Iran have unfailingly driven news cycles and hurt Republicans.) Some in the administration believe that emerging divides in Tehran’s leadership could prompt talks. And if the new sanctions did bring Iran to the table before November, then maybe a renewed stab at diplomacy could juice the markets—and provide an 11th-hour boost for Republicans.
Trump has been bored of the war for a while. Aides have been pushing him to focus on the economy to help Republican candidates, but he has continued to downplay the nation’s affordability challenges, much to his aides’ chagrin. And while Trump remains furious at Iran’s unwillingness to bend, aides have persuaded him to give the new plan a chance. In some ways, it’s not an original idea: Trump has relied on an economic “maximum pressure” campaign since his first term to try to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program. But the intelligence community was mistaken in its belief that Iran would buckle quickly under the financial strain. The regime seems willing to endure significant hardship, and its own citizens’ struggles, to maintain its grip on power. And the new approach carries its own political risks. If Iran proves resilient again, the pressure campaign may have to stretch beyond the midterms, leaving prices high in the interim.
White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told us in a statement that the United States has already “destr...
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