RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Every season, it seems like there is one bad team in Major League Baseball that goes on a late-season run to give the fans and front office hope for the next season. Whether it ends up being real hope or fool's good can often be a coin flip. The Kansas City Royals have been the hottest team in the American League but they are still going nowhere despite carrying an eight-game winning streak into their series opener in Toronto tonight. It's set for a 7:07 ET first pitch at Rogers Centre.
There is only about a month left in the season, but the clubs are meeting for the first time in 2026. The Blue Jays are -131 money-line favorites, and the Over/Under for total runs is 8.5 in the consensus MLB odds . Only Boston (eight) has more series wins in the American League since the All-Star break than the Blue Jays (seven) and Royals (six). Bet $5+ and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet on baseball at DraftKings:
About two weeks ago, Kansas City's postseason chances were nil, and that hasn't really changed according to the SportsLine Projection Model. Despite this eight-game win streak, the team was just too buried in the AL Central and AL wild card standings. The Central division is still out of reach, and the Royals (58-74) are eight games out of the final wild card spot. No team has ever gone from 50-74 to making the playoffs.
I would say the only thing the team's longest winning streak since May 2024 has accomplished is to improve the chances of manager Matt Quatraro returning for 2027. A return to health has played a big role, as an underachieving offense has awoken. Kansas City is averaging 6.3 runs per game during the streak while slashing .299/.380/.408. Slugging lefty Vinnie Pasquantino is 10-for-22 with four doubles and five RBI since coming off the injured list.
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The team saw the return of Maikel Garcia from about two months on the injured list early last week, only for Garcia to return to the IL on Friday with a hamstring injury. Rookie slugger Jac Caglianone , who competed in the All-Star Home Run Derby, was out Sunday with a sore ankle but should return and avoid another IL stint. He ranks among big-league leaders in August in batting (1st, .403), slugging pct. (1st, .694) and RBI (T-2nd, 20).
Meanwhile, the bullpen has been boosted by the addition of former All Star turned gas-can Craig Kimbrel , who joined the Royals on Aug. 10. He was brought in to fill a veteran role and hasn't allowed an earned run over five appearances with a save.
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Veteran right-hander Seth Lugo (5-7, 5.71 ERA) takes the mound Tuesday, and he hasn't been very good this month with a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 innings. Still, the Royals are 3-1 in his four outings because the offense has been backing him with plenty of run support (scoring at least six in three straight).
On the road this season, Lugo has a 5.63 ERA and .298 opponents' batting average in 12 outings. He hasn't faced the Blue Jays in 2026, and the model has him at 6.0 innings, 4.5 strikeouts, 5.4 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs.
While Kansas City's late run is too little, too late, the run by Toronto might not be. It's not that the defending AL champions are playing all that great, they are simply avoiding losing streaks and had won seven straight series before dropping a rubber match at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. The Jays just finished a 13-game gauntlet against expected AL East playoff teams at 8-5. They are smack in the race for the AL's final wild card spot at 64-68, 1.5 games back and given a 20.3% shot via the model.
DraftKings lists them as +250 favorites for the No. 6 seed. The lowest win total an AL playoff team has had in the three-team wild card era is 86, and the model projects Toronto at 79.1. But this year it's not going to take 86, with FanGraphs projecting the final AL WC team at 80 wins.
Toronto has been shockingly good after losses in recent weeks, winning 12 straight after a defeat with a 1.82 team ERA and .197 opponents' batting average. The lineup is averaging 4.5 runs per game in those 12 with a .793 OPS. The Blue Jays last lost back-to-back games on July 21-22.
Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer (1-6, 7.40 ERA) might again be pitching for his rotation spot, as the 42-year-old was shelled for seven runs over four innings last time out in a loss at Tampa Bay. That line was a bit misleading, as the Rays weren't crushing the ball and Scherzer was the victim of some poor defense. He says he is healthy after dealing with a forearm injury early in the season, then back spasms and a right thumb problems.
Scherzer hasn't faced Kansas City this season, and the model is projecting him at 4.3 innings, 3.4 strikeouts, 4.1 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs. Royals catcher and fellow future Hall of Famer Salvador Perez is a .371 hitter off him with four homers and two doubles in 35 at-bats.
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I'm feeling rather lucky, as I caught a major break in the bottom of the ninth of Monday's Guardians-Angels parlay in this space, as L.A. scored a meaningless run to cash a similar play to this at +129. Good for the Kansas City players for showing some pride, but most of that recent damage has been done at home, while the club is 22 games under .500 away. Toronto still has all the motivation chasing a playoff spot. The model has Royals 4.3-4.1 and that works. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .
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