RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesA Ukrainian soldier looks out of a window of an apartment destroyed by shelling in the direction of Kostiantynivka. Alex Nikitenko/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Russia is advancing slowly through the Donbas as Ukraine prepares to defend its last major strongholds.
Ukrainian commanders say the fight for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk could become brutal battles of attrition.
Analysts warn the outcome may hinge on Ukraine's ability to keep troops supplied under relentless drone and air attacks.
There is a moment before the camera begins rolling when the young Ukrainian commander says, "History is repeating itself for us in the Donbas. Unfortunately." Then he falls silent.
A few minutes later, the man, known by the call sign "Fleshka," takes a seat on a weight bench in the garden of a house in an eastern Ukrainian village, just a 30-minute drive from the nearest Russian troops. Every morning, he benches 80 kilograms here before returning to the screens where he coordinates the destruction of Russian assault units through the live feeds from his drone operators.
"I hope it will be a long fight. This is our land, and we will fight for every meter of it," Fleshka says once the camera is rolling. A few meters away stands his comrade "Sascha," another unit commander with the 33rd Brigade. "It's going to be a brutal meat grinder," he predicts, describing a bloody war of attrition. "But I'm glad to be part of it."
Fleshka, 24, and Sascha, 26, belong to a new generation of young Ukrainian commanders helping lead the defense of the last Ukrainian-held bastions in the Donbas. Both have spent years fighting on the front lines. They were involved in the drawn-out Battle of Bakhmut in 2023 and later took part in Ukraine's offensive in Russia's Kursk region at the end of 2024. Today, each man is responsible for more than 80 soldiers serving in a combined drone-and-infantry unit.
"Fleshka," a young Ukrainian commander, speaking with WELT in eastern Ukraine. Lysenko/WELT
The Donbas is comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Russia has captured almost all of Luhansk, while Ukraine controls just under one-fifth of the Donetsk region, an area of roughly 5,000 square kilometers, about five times the size of Berlin.
The question is increasingly not whether Putin's army will seize the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in Donbas, but when.
According to information obtained by WELT from conversations with representatives of a leading European intelligence service, Russian forces could reach the outskirts of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk by early 2027. The two cities form the center of the last major Ukrainian defensive belt in the Donbas.
Intelligence officials predict that Russian troops could complete the conquest of most of the region by next year. The human cost of that campaign, however, would likely be staggering. Hundreds of thousands more Russian soldiers could be killed or seriously wounded in the process.
Since the start of the war in 2022, Russia's military has suffered around 1.4 million casualties, according to estimates by analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, including up to 450,000 dead and nearly one million wounded.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady, author of Attack: When War Comes to Us , offers a somewhat more optimistic assessment for Ukraine. Russia's advance , he argues, is progressing at its slowest pace since winter. "At the current rate, Donetsk region would not be fully captured until the early 2030s," he says.
Ukrainian service members in the heavily contested city of Pokrovsk, an area of intense fighting in Donetsk. Alex Nikitenko/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
A slowdown, however, should not be mistaken for a stabilization of the front lines. In some sectors, Kyiv's military position is deteriorating. Russia enjoys local superiority in first-person-view drones on certain stretches of the front, in some cases by a ratio of 10 to one. Meanwhile, 3,000-kilogram guided glide bombs continue to inflict heavy losses on Ukrainian forces in front-line areas.
Gady believes it's possible that Russian troops could reach Kramatorsk and Sloviansk as early as spring or summer 2027, but only under one condition.
"Russia needs mobilization if it wants to sustain or increase the current pace," he says. "Moscow is unlikely to do this before the elections, and if it does, Ukraine has no equivalent response available."
According to Gady, Russia's General Staff estimates that newly mobilized troops need around four months before they can have a meaningful impact at the front. A mobilization this autumn could therefore begin to shape events during the first half of 2027.
Col. Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces says Russia's summer offensive has so far fallen well short of Kremlin expectations. Nevertheless, Putin's troops continue to advance "slowly but steadily".
The decisive factor in the battle for the Donbas, he argues, will be Ukrainian logistics.
"The single most important capability influencing the fight for the Ukrainian defensive belt around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk is the ability to supply the defenders in those cities. If Russian forces succeed in disrupting those supply routes, Ukrainian defenders will be able to hold out only for a limited period."
A Ukrainian service member in Druzhkivka, one of the three cities making up the fortress belt in Donetsk. Pierre Crom/Getty Images
Already, much of the resupply effort relies on heavy multicopter drones and uncrewed ground vehicles . Russian forces are systematically targeting these systems while simultaneously attempting to prevent the reinforcement and rotation of Ukrainian troops.
Reisner's warning is stark: "If the Ukrainians fail to break this vicious cycle, the defensive belt will fall." Ukrainian brigade commanders also acknowledge that Russia ultimately possesses the resources required to conquer the Donbas.
"Of course, Russia has the potential," Vadym Kr...
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