RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. A new North Carolina Senate poll from Fox News has delivered fresh warning signs for Republicans, showing former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper with a healthy advantage over Republican Michael Whatley in one of the nation's most closely watched races for the upper chamber.
Cooper leads the former Republican National Committee chairman by 9 percentage points overall with 53 percent compared to 44 percent, underscoring Democrats' growing confidence that they could flip a seat that will be critical in the battle for control of the Senate.
The survey's likely more concerning numbers for Republicans, however, extend beyond the overall margin. Democrats appear far more energized ahead of the midterm elections, with 51 percent of Democratic voters saying they are "extremely interested" in the election compared with just 42 percent of Republicans.
Democratic enthusiasm is also evident in voter motivation, as 58 percent of Democrats say they are extremely motivated to cast a ballot versus 50 percent of Republicans. Those figures suggest Democrats currently hold the intensity advantage that could prove decisive in midterm elections.
Newsweek reached out to Cooper and Whatley's campaigns via email Wednesday night for comment.
That enthusiasm gap is translating directly into Cooper's electoral strength. Among voters who say they are extremely interested in the election, Cooper's lead expands dramatically to 57 percent versus 42 percent for Whatley—a commanding 15-point advantage, the poll shows.
The Democrat also posts a 13-point lead, 55 percent to 42 percent, among voters who describe themselves as extremely motivated to vote. Among those who say they are "certain" to vote, Cooper maintains his 9-point advantage, 53 percent to 44 percent.
Those are particularly troubling numbers for Republicans because highly engaged voters are the most likely to turn out on Election Day, making enthusiasm a key factor for potential electoral performance.
"Recent data put the average Republican advantage in North Carolina statewide races at about 3 points," Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the survey alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, said in the Fox News poll. "Cooper’s edge rests on almost unanimous Democratic support and commanding numbers among independents. To win, Whatley must stop the bleeding with non-MAGA Republicans and improve his standing with disaffected, less partisan Carolinians."
Among independents, Cooper holds a 60 to 34 percent advantage over Whatley, the poll shows. Whatley's favorability in the poll is 40 percent compared to a 46 percent unfavorable rating, while Cooper's favorability is 54 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 44 percent.
The Tar Heel State's contest is critical because it's expected to help determine control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans hold a 53-45 majority—excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats—and Democrats view flipping the North Carolina seat as among their few viable paths to reclaiming the upper chamber, while Republicans see it as essential to maintaining their lead. The race will likely be among the most competitive races in this year's midterms, after Republican Thom Tillis opted against running for another term .
But federal races in North Carolina have proved elusive for Democrats, who have not won the state at the Senate or presidential level since 2008. Trump narrowly won the state in the 2024 presidential election over then-Vice President Kamala Harris, by over 3 points.
The findings also add to a growing body of polling that has consistently shown Cooper with the upper hand in the race. Recent surveys have pointed to the former governor's strong statewide popularity, while election forecasters have shifted the contest toward Democrats.
With North Carolina expected to be one of the marquee Senate battlegrounds of the 2026 midterms, Republicans will likely need to close the enthusiasm gap and consolidate their base if Whatley hopes to erase Cooper's advantage in the few months ahead.
A Public Policy Polling survey this month shows Cooper up 48 percent compared to Whatley's 44 percent. The poll surveyed 759 North Carolina voters on July 10 and July 11 and had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
In a New York Times /Siena University poll, Cooper held a 7-point lead over Whatley with 50 percent compared to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 601 likely voters from June 15 to June 27 and had a margin of error of 4.7 percent.
The Cook Political Report has ranked the race in the "lean Democrat" category .
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