RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) speaks to head coach Ben Johnson during Family Fest at Soldier Field on Aug. 3, 2025, in Chicago. (Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
The start of the NFL regular season is just around the corner and it’s time for season predictions. I’ll start with the Minnesota Vikings’ division rivals and end with the Vikings season forecast in early September.
As I have the last couple years, I’ll go through the key areas that can lead to changes from the previous season. Namely coaching and roster changes, injury and luck factors, and strength of schedule.
Up first among the Vikings’ division rivals: the Chicago Bears.
Chicago Bears 2025 Season and Offseason Changes
The Bears won the NFC North division last season in unconvincing fashion. They finished the season 11-6 after an 0-2 start with a last place schedule and having gone 3-3 in division games- splitting the series with each division rival. They finished the season with a top ten offense and bottom ten defense in both points, yards, and DVOA . Their net point differential was +26, which was third lowest among playoff teams and tied for 15th overall. If those stats lead you to believe that the Bears won a lot of close games to finish 11-6, you are correct- they did. Seven of their eleven wins were one-score games and thirteen total (wins and losses) including the playoffs. But in terms of the just the regular season, the Bears post-game expected win total , based on what happened during each game and considering luck factors, was just 8.8 wins- just over two fewer than their actual win total.
An example of a team winning a game they weren’t expected to win based on what happened during the game is the Vikings victory over the Bills a few years ago with Jefferson’s iconic catch on 4th and 18 or whatever it was and Josh Allen fumbling the snap on the goal line. Neither is something likely to happen more often than not so while it was a game the Vikings won, it was also a game they would not be expected to win given the events of the game and the likelihood of them reoccurring that way (i.e. how many times out of 100 would Josh Allen fumble the snap at their one-yard line late in the game and the Vikings recover?).
The reason for the Bears success last season, and why they outperformed expectations, was largely due to turnovers. The Bears defense, while ranking 23rd in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed, also ranked 1st in takeaways by a large margin. They had 33 takeaways last season- the same number the Vikings had in 2024. They also had the fewest giveaways offensively of any team last year, committing just 11 turnovers all season. And so while the Bears allowed more yards per play (6.0) than they gained (5.7), turnovers helped tilt results in their direction.
But while the Bears may not have won the division in convincing fashion, new head coach Ben Johnson and his staff deserve a ton of credit for turning things around for the Bears, who hadn’t had a winning season since 2018. Like Dan Campbell in Detroit, Ben Johnson has turned around a losing culture in Chicago and along with Caleb Williams is giving the Bears hope that the team is in good hands and the best is yet to come.
Offseason Changes
The Bears have some welcome continuity this year among the coaching staff, as head coach and de facto offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returns (although Press Taylor replaces Declan Doyle with the OC title) and Dennis Allen returns as defensive coordinator. That should help each side gain more scheme mastery although defensively there have been a number of roster changes.
Defensively, the Bears moved on from safeties Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard and cornerback Nanshon Wright. Those three played just about every snap defensively for the Bears and accounted for 15 of their 33 takeaways. They also moved on from linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who played about 90% of snaps last season.
The good news for the Bears is that they brought in some good replacements for Brisker and Byard in Coby Bryant and first-round pick Dillon Thieneman. The bad news is that Bryant will miss most or all of the season with a knee injury, which means new addition Xavier Woods, a one-time Viking now 31, will be starting alongside rookie Thieneman at safety. The Bears are elevating 2023 second-round pick Tyrique Stevenson to replace Wright at cornerback opposite Jaylon Johnson (2nd-team All-Pro in 2023). 2022 second-round pick Kyle Gordon, who missed most of last season, returns as slot corner.
At linebacker, the Bears are replacing Edmunds with Devin Bush, who put together a couple good seasons with the Browns after failing to live up to his #10 overall draft pick status with the Steelers and a one-year stint with the Seahawks.
The Bears opted for continuity along the defensive line, however. The problem with that is the Bears defensive line ranked 26th last season according to PFF, with only edge rusher Montez Sweat grading above 70 (72.4). Both defensive tackles Grady Jarrett and Gervon Dexter Jr. and edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo graded in the mid-50s. The Bears ranked 29th last season in net yards allowed per rush (5.0) and ranked 23rd in pressure rate (28.1%). So, while there will be some new starters for the Bears this season defensively, they may not represent improvement overall. Having Jaylon Johnson healthy all season, and Kyle Gordon too, may help, but it’s difficult to see much roster improvement overall for the Bears defensively.
Offensively, the Bears moved on from D.J. Moore and will effectively replace him with Luther Burden III, who by most accounts could have a breakout season. Moore was something of a disappointment for the Bears last season, as was Rome Odunze, who the Bears are hoping will live up to his #9 overall pick status at some point. The Bears also added former Lion Kalif Raymond as a slot receiver.
Along the offensive line, the Bears dealt with th...
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