RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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We've seen the running back position come back to high-stat glory over the past two seasons. Teams have adjusted to defenses playing their safeties back by running the ball more. And maybe a few more teams have utilized their RBs in the passing game than we're used to seeing. Plus, when teams do throw, they're diversifying their passing games more and more, taking down the number of crazy-high volume receivers with it.
All of that has pushed RBs to the popular position it's in. Last year's top-12 running backs averaged a crazy-high 16.6 half-PPR points, up from a still-crazy 16.1 in 2024. But that can be broken down into three groups -- you could even call them tiers: Five running backs averaged over 18 half-PPR points, two others were between 16 and 17 half-PPR points per game, and the last five averaged north of 14.0.
You should think of early-round RBs similarly: The Round 1 guys should carry 18-plus half-PPR potential, the Round 1-2 guys closer to 15-to-17, and the late Round 2 between 14 and 15 half-PPR per game. If you don't think a certain running back can do that, don't draft him, at least not early.
I definitely recommend getting at least one running back with one of your first two picks , two within your first four picks, and as many as four total within your first seven picks. I do not recommend going Zero RB this year and giving too much of a positional advantage to the rest of your league. The more shots you take at getting a running back who can produce points, the better your chances of galloping to Fantasy playoff glory.
Pretty self-explanatory group of mega-stud running backs worth a first-round pick. All of them have the potential for 18-plus half-PPR points per game. Maybe there's an argument that Chase Brown doesn't belong, but he has not only been solid in each of his past two seasons (at least 14 half-PPR points per game in each), but he has also shown flashes of being a monster close to the level of Robinson and Gibbs when the Bengals have given him a lot of work. That's in play this season, given the lack of running back improvements they made this offseason.
Don't be surprised to see Achane or Henry taken closer to the names in the first tier. However, both carry concerns that shouldn't be overlooked: Achane figures to see a decline in both targets and touchdowns given the changes around the Dolphins offense, and Henry isn't fighting age as much as a track record of declining numbers when the Ravens are trailing, plus the Ravens' new offensive system could mean changes to how much they actually run the ball. Walker III has disappointed us so many times before, and Chiefs running backs have disappointed us for much of this decade, but there's something about an explosive back like Walker getting schemed up in an Andy Reid offense that desperately needs a rushing presence that should get Fantasy managers pretty excited.
This is a good group to expect at least 15 half-PPR points per game from.
You might expect some of these names to slip into the back of Round 2 in half-PPR drafts -- Walker, especially since there's a lot of excitement about his potential in Kansas City. Jacobs would absolutely be in the second tier if his off-field issues were non-existent. The rest of the names carry at least mild risk due to injuries, splitting with another running back, a fall-off in performance, or all of the above. And yet you could argue they're a notch better than anyone else in the tiers after them.
I don't think it's a mistake to expect at least 13.5 half-PPR points per game from this tier.
It's notable that a tier of five players is expected to last two rounds. That speaks to the limited supply of decent-enough No. 2 running backs.
Etienne should be the primary back for a potent Saints offense. We know Judkins can be a workhorse in Cleveland, and while it's been a few years since we've seen Hall average over 13.5 half-PPR points per game, there is a fair argument to make that he can get there again.
After those three, there are some questions. Swift is expected to significantly split with Kyle Monangai (who's going several rounds later), and Irving also has great upside but will split with potentially two backs (both of whom are going several rounds later).
Every RB in this tier will be gone by the end of Round 5, if not the middle, and all have a profile that offers at least 12.5 half-PPR points per game.
This feels like the last tier where you might pull a reliable starter. The current odds-on favorites to be the lead backs in Seattle, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Pittsburgh are all here, though if it were certain any one of them would be both the lead back and really good, they'd be higher. And then there's Henderson, who has top 5 upside but figures to have his touches limited (and his backfield mate is also going a few rounds later).
You're hoping for these guys to at least hold down an 11 half-PPR average -- Warren hit 12.3 last year and was the only one of the group to get at least 11.2.
Rounds 12+ in half-PPR (and pretty much any format)
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