RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Every Tuesday during the NFL season, I release an "early bets for the week" article here at Yahoo Sports , noting a few wagers that I believe will gain closing line value and carry positive expected value into the weekend's games.
Last season, my early bets article released 66 bets with a record of 40-26 (60.6% win rate). Assuming all bets were 1 unit, they gained 12.85 units and carried an ROI of 19.47%. The 2025-26 season was one of the best NFL betting years I have ever had, so realistically, it's unlikely I'll do that well this season.
Still, I hope to maintain an ROI close to double digits betting early NFL sides and totals. Let's start now and get in on two Week 1 NFL bets as the lines have populated across the marketplace.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 41.5)
One of my favorite futures markets this offseason is the Falcons to make the playoffs at +240. I think they are one team that can vastly outperform their preseason prior expectations, in large part due to head coach Kevin Stefanski representing a large upgrade over Raheem Morris. Stefanski won Coach Of the Year twice in his six-year tenure with the Cleveland Browns. Tua Tagovailoa is also expected to be named the starting quarterback over Michael Penix Jr. (Tua has a 78% chance per the prediction markets to be the Falcons' Week 1 starter.
Offensively, I like Atlanta's talent to be cohesive and complementary and defensively, the Falcons were fantastic last year pressuring the quarterback and finished second in the NFL in total sacks.
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Specific to this matchup against Pittsburgh, having a pass rush that can get to an older and less mobile Aaron Rodgers with pressure is critical. Stefanski has game planned extensively against the Steelers for the past six years, gearing up for two matchups every season. He finished with a 6-6 lifetime record against Pittsburgh, exceeding expectations, as his Browns were only favored in two matchups. Atlanta's defensive coordinator is Jeff Ulbrich, who overlapped with Rodgers with the New York Jets — and suffice to say those two appear not to like one another.
If this line closes at +2.5, this is the most valuable half-point line movement in betting across any sport.
Bet: Falcons +3
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 44.5)
We start the NFL season right where we left off: a Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks. For this bet, I am looking at the game total.
The first thing to note and remember for the entire season is that 44 and 43 are considered key numbers for NFL totals. Over the last three years, 43 is the most common final score total, and 44 also ranks in the top-five most common. With this total hanging at 44.5, any line movement towards the under is more valuable than movement towards the over (45 was the 17th-most common outcome over the last three seasons for reference). If I see a 44.5 that might move down, I want to grab it early.
The Super Bowl finished 29-13, a final game total of 42. But more important than the outcome of one game was that the Super Bowl market was sharply bet towards the under, and it took 30 combined fourth-quarter points to even reach that final score.
The offseason also saw Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak depart to take the Las Vegas Raiders head coaching job and Super Bowl 60 MVP running back Kenneth Walker leave in free agency to Kansas City. Replacement running back Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in January and is unlikely to be at full strength, if he's active at all, for Week 1.
While the Patriots did acquire A.J. Brown this offseason, it's hard to believe his timing and rhythm with Drake Maye will be at full strength in Week 1. Maye led the NFL in completion percentage and yards per attempt last season, two stats that often are inversely correlated. While Brown adds talent, the statistics are still likely to regress and the Patriots' explosive play rate should drop.
Bet: Under 44.5
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