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AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 2h ago
Iowa State Football 2026 Offensive Player of the Year Prediction
The 2026 Iowa State football offense is being built almost entirely from scratch. A new head coach, a new offensive coordinator in Tyler Roehl coming directly from the Detroit Lions, and a roster that looks nothing like the one that went 8-4 in 2025. In an offseason defined by departure, the question of who carries the offensive load for Jimmy Rogers is one of the most interesting storylines heading into fall camp.
The answer almost certainly runs through one player. But there is another name worth watching closely.
Let me be direct. Iowa State’s offensive player of the year in 2026 is Jaylen Raynor’s award to lose.
The Arkansas State transfer comes to Ames with three years of starting experience and a resume that speaks for itself. Over 37 appearances with the Red Wolves he threw for 8,694 yards and 52 touchdowns compared to his 28 interceptions. His 2025 season alone produced 3,361 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and 423 rushing yards. He led the Sun Belt in pass completions and yards and was named Sun Belt Freshman of the Year in 2023.
The dual threat element is what makes Raynor genuinely exciting for Rogers’ new offense. He is not a pure pocket passer and that is a feature not a flaw. An offense coordinated by someone coming from the NFL level with a mobile quarterback who can hurt you through the air and on the ground is a matchup nightmare for any defensive coordinator in the Big 12.
The jump from the Sun Belt to the Big 12 is real and nobody should pretend otherwise. But Raynor has familiarity with Iowa State quarterbacks coach Keith Heckendorf who was his offensive coordinator at Arkansas State for three seasons. That relationship matters enormously for a player navigating a new system, a new conference, and a program in full transition. By all accounts Raynor has been in the facility constantly since arriving in Ames. The work ethic is not a question.
If Raynor can manage the upgrade in competition and limit his turnovers the offense will go where he takes it. This team’s ceiling is largely his ceiling.
The Dark Horse: Omari Hayes
If Raynor is the engine then Omari Hayes is the accelerator.
The Tulane transfer comes to Ames competing for the WR1 role and profiles as a genuine downfield threat that Iowa State’s new offense desperately needed. Hayes is a redshirt senior with two productive seasons at different programs under his belt and a reputation for getting teams down the field in a hurry.
What makes Hayes interesting as a secondary player of the year candidate is simple. Raynor needs a target he can trust in critical moments and Hayes profiles as exactly that. A quarterback playing in his first Big 12 season with a new coaching staff needs a safety valve, a reliable set of hands on third down, and a player who can turn a short gain into a big one after the catch. Hayes checks all of those boxes.
The wide receiver room at Iowa State is thin after the mass exodus of the offseason. That scarcity creates opportunity. Hayes does not have to compete for targets. They are going to come to him and in volume.
The Bottom Line
Raynor is the pick. A productive season from him makes Iowa State competitive in the Big 12 and keeps the Rogers era pointed in the right direction. But keep your eyes on Omari Hayes. If those two develop chemistry early the Iowa State offense could surprise a lot of people who have already written off this program in year one of the rebuild.
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