RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesIf that headline looks familiar, it should, because I wrote one of these at last year’s trade deadline and again last December .
To refresh your memory: Alcántara wasn’t traded by the Marlins a year ago at the deadline largely because they were asking for too much in return — which was the same for most starting pitchers a year ago. The Marlins also decided to hang on to Alcántara over the offseason.
Their patience has paid off, at least in Alcántara’s individual performance. He leads MLB in games started and innings pitched — he’s thrown 150.2 innings, which is 12 more than anyone else. That includes seven shutout innings against the Phillies Tuesday night , with five strikeouts. That lowered his season ERA to 3.81, his best since he won the NL Cy Young Award in 2022.
It seems clear that Alcántara is all the way back from the Tommy John surgery that had him miss all of 2024, though his K rate is down somewhat. He still throws hard:
The Marlins were, for a time, in the wild card race. In fact, after defeating the Mariners July 9 they were 52-42 and tied with the Phillies for the second wild-card spot, just half a game behind the Cubs.
Then they lost 12 in a row. They’ve defeated the Phillies two days in a row (thanks, Marlins!) to get back to .500. They are still only two games out of the last wild-card spot — but there are four teams ahead of them (Diamondbacks, Pirates, Nationals, Padres).
So will they be sellers before Monday? Here are some thoughts from Marlins writer Craig Mis h, quoted in “Fish On First”:
I think there clearly is a pivot for the Marlins at this point. I don’t expect them to be flat-out sellers—that I do not expect. But I also don’t believe they will be buying any players for right now. Any trades that they potentially will make I believe will be for the future.
“If you’re asking if any players could be traded from this year’s team, I still think it’s to be determined. You have to look at players that are on expiring contracts at the end of this season. A lot of teams are gonna certainly call regardless of the outcome of this season on Pete Fairbanks. He has an expiring contract at the end of the season. Somebody could certainly take a shot on him at the end of the year. Whether or not he gets traded, I don’t know the answer.”
“But as far as players on this team, we have to stop talking about Sandy Alcantara being traded! He’s not going to be traded. And there are a lot of players on this team…Eury Pérez, Max Meyer, Joe Mack—these are cornerstone-type players. I believe they will be with this team through the deadline and through the future.”
Okay, Mish says flat-out that Alcántara isn’t going to be traded. But you know how that goes — sometimes teams do things when you least expect it.
It should be noted that Alcántara has been much better in Miami this year (11 starts, 2.95 ERA, 1.023 WHIP, 4 HR in 73.1 innings) than on the road (12 starts, 4.66 ERA, 1.384 WHIP, 13 HR in 77.1 innings), though the road numbers are skewed by two really bad starts early on, one in Detroit, the other in Toronto, since then his road numbers have been decent enough.
Alcántara has a team option for 2027 at $21 million, which doesn’t seem unreasonable, or a $2 million buyout. Honestly I don’t see the Marlins paying that. Alcántara is their highest-paid player at $17 million ($11.2 million luxury tax hit) and they have only one other player making more than $1.8 million (closer Pete Fairbanks at $13 million). Miami’s total payroll is 29th in cash ($100.9 million) and last in luxury tax ($82.6 million). Of course, we don’t know what sort of system will be in place for the 2027 season and beyond until there’s a labor agreement, but I’d think the Marlins would sell Alcántara for young, cost-controlled players. The Cubs could afford to pick up that team option. (Payroll and tax numbers here are from Spotrac.)
Last winter the Cubs sent Owen Caissie (and two minor leaguers) to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera.
So what if they sent Jaxon Wiggins and Kevin Alcántara to Miami for Sandy Alcántara? Would that be enough?
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