RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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For the first time since 2007, the Ravens will enter the 2026 season without John Harbaugh as head coach. Jesse Minter is now the fourth head coach in franchise history, with the last two winning Super Bowls during their tenures. That will be the expectation for Minter with perennial MVP candidate Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Harbaugh made the playoffs in 12 of his 18 seasons, so the new coach certainly has big shoes to fill.
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At -390, the Ravens are seen by the betting market as the biggest lock to make the playoffs in the AFC despite missing the postseason last year and transitioning to a new head coach. Only the Rams have lower odds to win the Super Bowl with Baltimore taking some steam during the offseason, and the Ravens are the favorites to win the AFC.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about the Ravens' 2025 season was finishing 6-7 in games started by Lamar Jackson, as the 2023 NFL MVP had a 70-24 record entering 2025. Expectations aren't any lower for the Ravens this year, with their projected win total sitting right around 11 based on how 10.5 and 11.5 are juiced. The last time the Ravens' win total was less than 10.5 was in 2018 when they blew by their 8.5 line in Lamar Jackson's first season as starter.
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The Ravens' defense finished top nine in scoring in eight of the previous nine seasons heading into 2025, with Baltimore surrendering 37 points or more in four of its first five games and 24 or more in five of its last six. A good place for Minter to start focusing improvements is in the pass rush, where Ravens ranked 31st in sacks per pass attempt. The offense led the league in yards per rush but had major issues protecting the quarterback, ranking 29th in sacks per pass attempt.
The two areas of focus this offseason for the Ravens have been upgrading the interior of the offensive line as well as the edge rush. On offense, John Simpson returns after two years with the Jets, but the biggest addition was the draft's best pure guard prospect in Vega Ioane, and all that remains is figuring out how to replace Tyler Linderbaum at center. On defense, the team backed out of a Maxx Crosby deal due to a failed physical and instead signed Trey Hendrickson, who racked up 35 sacks over two seasons before missing the majority of 2025 due to injury. Second-round pick Zion Young brings additional juice to the edge rusher position.
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The Ravens get to trade one of their road games for an international matchup, but that trip will mean a flight of 10-plus hours each way with no time off before or after the Week 3 game in Rio de Janeiro. On the plus side, the rest of the schedule doesn't involve too much travel with Houston their furthest destination, and a late bye should help reset for a playoff run provided the first 12 weeks aren't a disaster.
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While Lamar Jackson is a cheat code, there are too many unknowns for me to get on board with the Ravens being the biggest playoff lock in the league and owners of one of the highest win totals. Declan Doyle is out from under Ben Johnson's shadow as offensive coordinator, and Minter will have to navigate the challenges of being a first-time head coach. The offensive line added a high-floor rookie but lost a key piece, while the defense also is in a spot of potentially losing more talent than it gained. It's easy to say that with good health the team should be a Super Bowl contender, but Jackson's 6-7 record and Ronnie Stanley staying healthy again last year during a down season suggest it's not that simple. The Ravens seem more like a 9-10 win team to me in the first year post-Harbaugh than one we should expect to challenge for the No. 1 seed.
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