RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The 2026 NFL season is fast approaching and the Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Playbook has everything you need to know to before your draft, giving you the tools and analysis to crush the competition. Among that analysis is Joel Smyth's RB player profiles. Below is a sneak peek of some of the 25+ rusher profiles in the Ultra Playbook, including a ceiling and risk meter for each. If you subscribe to Ultra, there are nearly 150 player profiles to digest.
Get a free preview of what Ultra subscribers get with The Playbook, including a snapshot of our sleepers, breakouts, strategy tips, player profiles and more, right here.
Ceiling: If things fall in their favor, how big can they hit in 2026?
Risk: A subjective ranking based on injuries, surrounding injuries, coaching changes, how proven a player is, age, and other factors that bring on uncertainty
Kenneth Walker III, Chiefs (ADP: 16)
It's night and day for Kenneth Walker III in terms of his fantasy situation. He goes from an offense with a split backfield, and little work in the red zone, to a team whose offense is both high-scoring and lacking weapons. His contract and competition makes predicting top-12 RB volume reasonable, with opportunities in the red zone and passing game being key additions.
The fantasy obstacle for Walker has always been injuries. Although he's only missed 10 of 72 career games, only 41 of those games have come with 15+ touches due to leaving early, snap counts and coaching decisions. The 23.4 fantasy PPG in the NFL Playoffs last season is what fantasy managers hope will be what sticks from 2025. After the failed Isiah Pacheco-Kareem Hunt experiment, Andy Reid will look to go back to having a workhorse in Walker.
Ceiling : 9/10
Risk : 6/10
Jonathan Taylor, Colts (ADP: 7)
Can Daniel Jones come back strong? Taylor's production fell off after his quarterback's Achilles injury in 2025, production that started out as part of the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL with a run-first mentality. JT is the definition of a bellcow RB, with underrated, career-high usage in the passing game last season. If Jones' injury causes less QB red-zone rushing and more checkdowns, Taylor could top his 2025 season easily as long as the offense can remain clicking. As one of only four running backs to be an RB1 in three consecutive seasons, he should be in for another RB1 season with high volume.
Ceiling : 10/10
Risk : 6/10
RJ Harvey, Broncos (104)
Before the J.K. Dobbins injury, the Broncos' rookie RB only handled 24% of RB carries last season. He was a TD machine that broke out in the second half of the season as the starter, although it diminished after Week 17 (the fantasy championship in most leagues). The return of Dobbins and addition of fourth-round pick Jonah Coleman makes it a more difficult path for Harvey to return to his peak. The offensive line and receiving opportunity are great, but the Broncos RB will just need to develop after a rookie season that was shaky in efficiency.
Ceiling : 8/10
Risk : 8/10
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots (63)
The concern is obvious: Henderson barely played in the NFL playoffs when it matters most. Four total snaps in the AFC Championship is #notgood. He is a big "if" player. If he gets 50% of the volume, that alone can be enough. If he gets 65%+ he can be a league winner. We saw it in spurts with three different top-five RB weeks alone, specifically posting RB1 numbers in his month without Rhamondre Stevenson, at 20 touches a week. His overall rushing efficiency and pass protection were sub-par, but it was his rookie season after all. If he can flirt with 15 touches per game, that'll be plenty to hit ADP in a New England offense.
Ceiling : 8/10
Risk : 7/10
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Tony Pollard, Titans (86)
Rumors of a running back by committee can hurt Pollard in a big way. Surprisingly, the Titans RB is one of three RBs to have 275+ carries in three straight seasons. Although he was relevantly efficient in 2025, the Tennessee offense held him back from any real fantasy payout. However, he has been a top-30 RB in each of the last four seasons, and should make it five if the Titans offense improves after overhauling that side of the ball.
Ceiling : 7/10
Risk : 7/10
D'Andre Swift, Bears (47)
Ben Johnson running backs have scored more than any since 2022, but Swift's production, especially in the second half of the season, surprisingly was limited to the ground game. He tied his career high in goal-line attempts but averaged a career low in targets. With Kyle Monangai increasing his workload later in the year, Swift should be an RB2 thanks to an elite rushing attack, yet with a lower ceiling compared to past seasons.
Ceiling : 8/10
Risk : 4/10
Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars (63)
Nobody had a better offseason than 2025 fourth-rounder Bhayshul Tuten. After rumors of adding a top running back in the draft or free agency, the Jacksonville Jaguars replaced Travis Etienne Jr. with career backup Chris Rodriguez Jr. and passed on the position with all 10 of their NFL Draft selections. The volume is the X-Factor and the unknown.
If Jacksonville does use Tuten as a true 1A, he can be the biggest fantasy value in the draft. Tuten and Rodriguez both have the same strengths as inside runners and were dominant at the goal line in 2025. When it comes to receiving, Tuten has the clear advantage, although he was far behind Etienne in that department last season. With a top offense to support him and playcaller Liam Coen having the fifth-most RB fantasy points the last two seasons, Tuten is a high-upside target.
Ceiling : 8/10
Risk : 6/10
Jaylen Warren, Steelers (77)
Warren is a reliable fantasy option that isn't always the most exciting draft-day selection. His efficiency has always been high, with the volume being the main eluding factor. In the Aaron Rodgers offense, RBs score plent...
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