RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 2 sourcesAfter a nice run, we hit a little speed bump yesterday. Last year, I felt like I was picking games poorly, but still ended up with a decent enough baseball season. This year, I think I'm doing a good job of picking games, but I'm running into some really bad luck. There are multiple games that I've lost late or had the first five lose for the full game to win (or vice versa). Things happen, but let's try to get a win here as the Yankees take on the White Sox.
Speaking of luck, it does feel like the New York Yankees are the recipients of some bad luck. When things are going right for them, they get dealt a blow like losing their annual MVP candidate, Aaron Judge . No one will feel sorry for the Yankees, but it does stink when the best players are unavailable in any sport. They have enough to get by, and few holes, even without Judge in the lineup. They do need a catcher, and they probably could benefit from a pitcher or two. We know they will be aggressive at the deadline.
Perhaps the biggest addition for them would be getting today's starter, Gerrit Cole , back to his normal performance. Cole is 3-5 for the season with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His WHIP indicates to me that he is pitching well, but might be running into some bad luck. Part of that is certainly his home runs allowed. He has given up 11 in just 62 innings this season. He has made 11 starts this season, and just three of them have been homerless outings. He has been very good against the White Sox in his career, with 10 hits allowed over 61 at-bats. He also beat them earlier this year with two earned runs in six innings.
The Chicago White Sox are likely to be in a battle for the American League Central for the remainder of this season. That's not a sentence many expected to read when the season began. They are five games over .500 and have been excellent at home this year with a 32-20 mark. Since the All-Star Break, the White Sox have gone 5-5, but they currently sit in first place in the division thanks in part to a five-game Guardians losing streak. Even if the Sox make the postseason, I think they will struggle, as they don't really have great arms in the rotation. Maybe they will trade for someone.
Speaking of their rotation, tonight's starter, Anthony Kay, looks to lead them to victory. Kay has been fine for them with a 7-4 record and a 4.21 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP. None of those numbers are overly impressive. Kay has been significantly better in home starts, throwing to a 3.06 ERA. That's 2.50 lower than his road ERA. He faced the Yankees earlier this season and allowed four earned runs on six hits in four innings of work.
The Yankees are slightly below league average for batting against left-handed pitchers. They have a .239 batting average against lefties, but they do have the better pitcher. If Cole can keep the ball in the yard, he should be able to get the Yankees a win. The White Sox are very homer-dependent and rank 7th in home runs.
There aren't going to be a ton of times where you can get Cole at a reasonable number, and today is one of those days. I know Kay has been better at home, and the line is moving in favor of the White Sox, but the Yankees are the better team and have the better pitcher and bullpen. I'm taking them on the run line at +129. If you want the safer option, the moneyline is -131.
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