RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The 2026-27 college basketball season is shaping up to be competitive. Duke opened as the odds-on favorite to win the 2027 national title earlier this spring, and with less than three months until the season begins, Jon Scheyer's program has some company at the top of the odds.
That's because Florida , a team coming off a first-weekend exit in the NCAA Tournament after capturing the 2025 national title, brings back a "Big Three" of Alex Condon , Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu that will make them one of the toughest teams to face for the third consecutive season. Duke and Florida (+600) are co-favorites to be the final team standing in Detroit in just over eight months.
Here is a snapshot of where we stand heading into an exciting time on the sports calendar, with takeaways for how the odds currently look.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that Florida and Duke have the best odds to win the national title. Those teams will more than likely open the season as the top-two ranked teams in the preseason AP Top 25 poll later this fall. While Florida has the inside track to be the preseason top-ranked team, Duke won't be far behind.
The best part? Duke is set to travel to Gainesville on Dec. 1 to face Florida in the ACC/SEC Challenge. Duke hosted Florida last fall and came away with a dramatic win over the then-reigning national champions. While it's hard to project what the polls could look like a month into the season, there's a strong possibility, at minimum, that it will be a matchup of top-five teams.
Why is Florida at the top of the odds? Well, getting back Haugh, Condon, Chinyelu and Boogie Fland helps. If the recent injunction in Colorado stands, the Gators could also welcome back Denzel Aberdeen , who transferred to Kentucky last offseason after helping Florida win the national title in 2025. He transferred back to Florida earlier this offseason but would need the injunction to hold to play this season.
Why is Duke the co-favorite? Well, that's also pretty simple. The Blue Devils opened as the favorite to cut down the nets in 2027 due to a combination of expected returners coupled with a loaded incoming recruiting class. Since the initial odds were released, Duke added Wisconsin star John Blackwell via the transfer portal and Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje to its high school recruiting class. Boumtje-Boumtje will have to play two seasons of college basketball due to the NBA Draft's age requirement, but should be a strong contender to go No. 1 overall in 2028.
Retention is king in college basketball. Illinois is bringing back as much returning talent as anyone despite losing All-American guard Keaton Wagler to the NBA and Kylan Boswell to graduation. Illinois returns four of its top six scorers, including Andrej Stojaković, David Mirkovic and the Ivišić brothers (Tomislav and Zvonimir). The program also added Stefan Vaakas from the transfer portal and welcomes a top-15 high school recruiting class headlined by five-star guard Quentin Coleman.
After Dusty May unexpectedly departed Michigan (more on that shortly), Illinois became, in my opinion, the clear-cut best team in the Big Ten. You can argue that was the case already before any coaching change, but Illinois has the personnel to make another deep tournament run. Stojaković should take a jump this season as an all-around scorer. Mirkovic is a potential lottery pick in a not-so-star-studded 2027 class.
After Florida and Duke, Illinois is simply the team I trust the most (with the best odds to win the national title) to be the final team standing come April.
The reason Michigan's odds have dipped since the national title game is not solely because May left for the NBA. The main reason is, at the time, it was unclear whether Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara would return to school or enter the NBA Draft . Both players were viewed as potential mid-first-round picks heading into the NCAA Tournament. Johnson and Mara raised their stock significantly in the weeks leading up to the draft, which made a return to school unlikely.
After May left, Michigan quickly promoted Mike Boynton Jr. to head coach. That promotion played a significant role in Michigan bringing back almost its entire roster. The only departure was LJ Cason , who is not expected to play during the 2026-27 season as he recovers from a torn ACL.
Replacing three lottery picks is no easy task. The only returning starter from last year's team is Elliot Cadeau , who was named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. Michigan should also be excited about the expected jump Trey McKenny should make as a full-time starter. Still, there are question marks about how Boynton will fare in Year 1 with a roster that (on paper) is less talented than last year.
Michigan should still be a Tier 1 Big Ten title contender this season, but the value to win the national title (+1600) isn't there when teams in that range (such as Illinois) are right there.
What is the definition of a longshot? Well, in my opinion, it's a team with odds greater than +6000. So, for this exercise, I will go with North Carolina (+7500). Are the Tar Heels going to win the national title in Michael Malone's first season as college basketball coach? Probably not. Is it worth the value? Absolutely.
Malone was one of the best coaches in the NBA during his time with the Denver Nuggets. Although college basketball is a different beast with the transfer portal, high school recruiting and the pending five-for-five ruling set to rock the sport, Malone has done a solid job navigating all of that. UNC has a top-10 transfer class headlined by Matt Able , Terrence Brown and Neoklis Avdalas and added five-star Sayon Keita, who could be a first-round pick in 2027.
Again, will North Carolina win the national title with that roster? Probably not. But Malone as a college coach is the ultimate wild card. It will either age poorly or will be one of the best hires of the cycle. My guess? It will be the latter.
Between now and ope...
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