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A non-profit newsroom, powered by WNYC. Gothamist Listen Live Donate News If Luigi Mangione pleads guilty in federal court, here’s what lawyers say may happen next By Samantha Max Published Aug 13, 2026 at 4:28 p.m. ET
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The New York Times and other outlets are reporting that Luigi Mangione is expected to take a plea deal during a last-minute appearance in federal court Friday, just weeks before he is scheduled to stand trial on separate state charges .
The U.S. attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York declined to comment and a spokesperson for Mangione’s defense team did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the reported deal.
A guilty plea in the federal case would likely upend Mangione's chances of going to trial in state court next month, several legal experts told Gothamist. They said the plea agreement's timing signals that the defense team is strategizing various paths to avoid the state trial and minimize the length of a possible prison sentence.
“He’s trying to cut his losses,” said Gary Galperin, an adjunct professor at Cardozo Law School and a former Manhattan prosecutor. “When you put aside all the high-profile attention to the case and all the innuendos and concerns about the healthcare insurance industry, at its most basic, this is a cold-blooded execution on the streets of Manhattan where there's no justification, absolutely no legal justification.”
A federal grand jury indicted Mangione, 28, on stalking, murder and weapon charges after prosecutors accused him of following UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson to New York City and fatally shooting him outside a Midtown hotel in December 2024.
The Department of Justice initially planned to pursue the death penalty against Mangione, but that possibility went away when a judge dismissed the federal murder and weapon charges on a legal technicality. In state court, Mangione faces second-degree murder and criminal weapons possession charges. A judge previously dismissed terrorism-related charges in the state case, which could have resulted in life without the possibility of parole if Mangione were convicted.
In June, Justice Gregory Carro revealed that Mangione planned to pursue a mental health defense in state court. Mangione was expected to argue that he was “extremely emotionally disturbed” when he allegedly shot the health insurance executive — a legal argument that could have shortened his prison sentence if convicted. But the defense reversed those plans just a day later.
Former public defender and John Jay College associate professor Steven Wasserman said he thought extreme emotional disturbance was Mangione’s “most viable defense.” Once Mangione decided not to go that route, Wasserman said he was “hard pressed” on how Mangione would defend himself. A plea deal, he said, is “a prudent outcome.”
Here’s what legal experts say could come next if Mangione pleads guilty in federal court.
Legal experts said Mangione could be working out deals with both federal and state prosecutors to plead guilty and avoid trial. Given the lengthy possible sentences he faces in both cases, they said a deal could be enticing if it results in less prison time.
“He’s a young man, he’s got his whole life ahead of him, and there’s a lot to fight for,” said defense attorney Steven Raiser, who represented Daniel Penny , another young man who recently faced a high-profile and politically divisive prosecution in Manhattan.
Raiser said a plea deal would have been unlikely if the death penalty were still a possibility, because Mangione would have had “nothing to lose.”
“But based on reading the tea leaves as they seem to be lining up, there's got to be some decent incentive there at this point to take the plea,” he said. “And if that decent incentive is something well below life in prison, then I'm not surprised at all that they're coalescing around the idea of taking the plea.”
Several attorneys said a federal guilty plea could lay the groundwork for Mangione’s defense to get the state charges dismissed through a legal concept known as “double jeopardy.”
Both federal and state laws protect people from being tried twice for the same crime. Experts said New York’s double jeopardy protections are stronger than the federal ones, so Mangione could plead guilty in federal court and then argue in state court that another trial would violate his rights.
Defense attorney Todd Spodek said Mangione’s lawyers might say his state indictment should be dismissed after pleading guilty in the federal case, because both prosecutions arise from the same alleged conduct and the same death. But he said it wouldn’t be easy to sway the judge, given that Mangione faces different charges in the state and federal cases.
Galperin said a double jeopardy argument would not be resolved quickly.
“This isn’t a one, two, three matter,” he said. “It’s complicated.”
The former prosecutor said he expected a “flurry of motions,” with the defense arguing for the state charges to be dismissed and the district attorney’s office arguing that the prosecution should move forward. Then, a judge would need to consider their arguments and make a decision — all of which would likely delay the case.
”It poses a very real procedural bar to the case going forward on Sept. 8, which may be, of course, the very purpose of the defense,” Galperin said. “They're trying to derail the state case from going forward. He’s in a very tough position.”
Some legal experts deemed it extremely unlikely that Mangione would ple...
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