RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThere's a widespread assumption that parity is the greatest achievement any sports league can have. Nobody wants to see elite teams dominate, year in and year out, the thinking goes.
This appreciation for parity is frequently referenced as one of the explanations for the NFL's total and complete ratings domination. Though this parity is curiously never impacted by the fact that Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady has won the Super Bowl in seven of the last 12 years, despite Brady having retired three years ago.
Still, if parity is what fans want, boy should they love the American League standings in 2026.
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We're barreling toward September and the end of the 2026 regular season, with most teams having just 30–32 games remaining on their schedules. And this year's AL, particularly the AL West, is on track to make a historic, embarrassing, type of history.
Since the founding of Major League Baseball , there's never been a team in a full season to reach the postseason with a losing record. Yet with, again, just over a month's worth of games remaining, there are only four teams in the AL with a winning record. Three of them are in the same division. It gets worse.
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Not one team in the American League West has a winning record, with the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers both tied at 65-66. The Seattle Mariners, who both bought and sold at the trade deadline, are in third place at 62-69. They've been outscored by 61 runs this year. Seven games under .500. Surely eliminated from postseason contention, right?
Not exactly. Somehow, the Mariners are just three games back of both first place in their division and the third wild card spot. Then there's the rest of the AL.
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The Cleveland Guardians are 65-66, and currently in the third wild card spot, tied with the Rangers. The Toronto Blue Jays, having a disappointing season after coming within two outs of winning the World Series in 2025, are just 1.5 games back despite a 64-68 record.
Then there's the Detroit Tigers, who gave up on their season and traded Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, are only 3.5 games back, despite a 61-69 record. Impressively, even the 58-74 Kansas City Royals are "only" 7.5 games out of a wild card spot after winning eight in a row.
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Running away with the best record in the AL is poor, downtrodden, small market Tampa Bay Rays, at 77-53, but between the fourth best record, the low payroll Chicago White Sox at 68-62, and the Tigers in 12th, the winning percentage gap is just five percentage points. Nine teams in the AL are projected to finish with between 77-83 wins. You want parity? Boy has baseball delivered parity.
11 teams in the AL have at least a 12% chance of reaching the playoffs, per Fangraphs. The Mariners have a 35% chance of reaching the playoffs with their current record sitting at 62-69. Hilariously, again, per Fangraphs, the Astros have a 16% chance of clinching a first-round bye with a losing record. Oh, and they just mutually agreed to part ways with their general manager, Dana Brown, because the team has been so underwhelming this year.
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Meanwhile, in the National League, 10 of the 15 teams have a positive run differential, with the St. Louis Cardinals just behind at -2.
So why has this happened? Partially, it's a result of AL teams and owners putting profits ahead of building the best possible roster. Mid to small market teams in the NL have been more committed to higher salaries and more talent, like the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres . Even when organizations, like the Blue Jays, have committed to trying to win, disappointing seasons from star players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have led to underwhelming records.
All these elements have combined to create a scenario where we could go from not a single team making the playoffs with a losing record in a full season, to multiple teams making it in the same season. Wild. And embarrassing.
But that all highlights the underlying truth about modern baseball: the gaps between teams just aren't that big. Yes, the Dodgers have vacuumed up talent. They also just went 2-11 against the Red Sox, Cubs, and Brewers. Advancements in pitch design, creation, and data has compressed the gulf between the best pitchers in baseball and the middle class.
Teaching starters to go max effort on every pitch, combined with the ease of finding fireballing relievers, has made run prevention easier to come by. Those factors have created this remarkable level of parity. Funny timing as the league and its owners look to lock players out in a few months over concerns about "competitive balance.
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