RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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SportsMoney 2026 MLB Trade Deadline Near With Most Teams Rocking Same Parity Boat By Chuck Murr ,
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Chuck analyzes and writes about baseball, soccer & other sports. Follow Author Jul 29, 2026, 04:00am EDT --:-- / --:-- This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more . This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more . Summary The 2026 MLB Trade Deadline on August 3rd is poised to be unusually unpredictable, with the next five days critical for team strategies. Many clubs remain in playoff contention, creating a scarcity of clear sellers and making the market for impact players tight. Top talents like Tarik Skubal, Mason Miller, and C.J. Abrams could be retained or traded based on immediate results. Even traditional sellers like the Giants might deal stars like Luis Arraez, while teams like the Blue Jays could shift from selling Kevin Gausman to buying if they have a strong weekend. This "topsy-turvy" environment means numerous "fence-sitters" will make last-minute decisions. Powerhouses like the Dodgers and Yankees are expected to be aggressive, but the Brewers and Rays might also become significant buyers, leveraging their prospect-rich systems. The deadline offers a chance to break from parity and pursue a championship.
The next five days will determine the future fate of many MLB players and teams. The 2026 MLB Trade Deadline is August 3, and who goes where or stays put by 6 p.m. ET on Monday is tied to which teams win or lose until then.
There isn’t a team in any sport on any level on the planet that isn’t wishing to improve. In that sense, all 30 MLB teams would like to be “buyers” adding better and more expensive players by Monday. Some simply do not have the talent needed to exchange or the money to pay in return, however. Those clubs would usually be classified as “sellers” seeking to cut payroll and add promising prospects in hopes of rebuilding for the future.
Except that in 2026, the future could be now – given the results of the next five days. The best possible prizes, pitchers Tarik Skubal and Mason Miller and shortstop C.J. Abrams could be retained to help their teams keep winning or dealt to wave the white flag for 2026 with hopes of waving a pennant in 2027.
Each league has 12 teams reasonably in the running for one of six playoff spots apiece. Therefore, only six teams total are basically out of it and presumably more eager to be “sellers” of their best players.
Yet if those “best players” were performing real well in 2026, those clubs would not be in the predicament of essentially saying sayonara, see you next year. There’s not a high demand for the cream of the tail-end crop.
It’s a classic catch-22 scenario – which brings to mind a humorous anecdote. When asked why defensively-challenged Dick Stuart was nicknamed “Catch 22” in the 1960s, a teammate replied, “Because if you made 50 throws to him, he’d catch 22.”
The odds should be higher that the majority of MLB teams will make a player move or two by the impending deadline. Except this year, determining who goes where is tougher than usual since clubs are traditionally unwilling to deal with a team it is battling in the standings. So in 2026, perhaps we should look for more trades involving AL and NL teams.
Conversely, the “I’ll help you, since you are not in direct competition” thinking may restrict the number of trades as it curtails the number of possibilities.
It sounds undecisive, unpredictable and a bit screwy only because it is.
In 2026, the Angels, Athletics, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, Mets, Rockies and Royals appear to be most likely sellers. A couple other teams could join that group this weekend.
Veteran infielder Luis Arraez is often mentioned as likely to be dealt by San Francisco despite his .326 batting average, second in the National League. The Giants (45-61) are 9.5 games out of a possible wild-card spot and Arraez is due to become an unrestricted free agent in 2027.
A contender needing offense could want the three-time batting champion who since the end of 2022 has played for Minnesota, Miami, San Diego and San Francisco. Miami’s 2024 trade of Arraez got prospects that have helped the Marlins improve.
Those needing a pitcher and willing to pay off a contract could contact Toronto about Kevin Gausman. The 35-year-old will be owed $7 million this year after the deadline. Since May 23, he is 0-7 to put his record at 4-10 as the defending AL champion Blue Jays are five games behind Cleveland for the final wild-card spot.
In his loss streak, Gausman got only 14 runs (2.0 a game) of support. So a rival GM could figure, “He is pitching well enough to win with us.”
Then again, if Toronto runs the table the next five days, the Blue Jays may be back in true contention and decide to add players. It’s that close and questionable.
Teams on the cusp of contending today could be out of it or on a winning streak by Monday. Sitting on the fence right now, contemplating various scenarios are the Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Tigers and Twins.
That leaves 16 buyers, though a bad five days by some of them could completely change their plans.
A great stretch already altered the Boston Red Sox’ fortunes and thinking. A 15-game winning streak and 20-2 record from June 25 to July 22 took them from last place into solid playoff contention. So the Red Sox fired an “early” trade shot.
Boston made the first buyers’ salvo on July 26 by acquiring infielder Curtis Mead from Washington for pitcher Connelly Early. "This move makes our major league roster better," Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Breslow told reporters. “We think this is a move to make us better in 2026 and we’ll continue to look for these opportunities.”
Alas, Mead is out with a broken left wrist, incurred when hit by a pitch in his second time at bat for Boston.
Six clubs already have 60 or more wins with less than 60 games to play. The Los Angeles Dodger...
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