RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Aaron Kaufman used to meet his lofty daily protein goals — a gram for each pound he weighs — with ground beef.
Then in the spring the 32-year-old moved from Brooklyn to Manhattan. To offset the higher cost of rent, he has been spending more on groceries instead of eating out. But on his first visit to the local grocery store, he saw that ground beef was $8 a pound, compared with $6 in Brooklyn. He decided to switch proteins, leaning largely on cheaper options such as chicken.
He still prefers the taste of ground beef. “Every once in a while, I’ll treat myself if it’s on sale,” Kaufman said.
He’s not alone. After absorbing nearly two years of surging beef prices, Americans are finally showing signs that they have reached their limit. That marks a notable turn for a market where a shrinking US cattle herd repeatedly pushed prices to records, yet consumers kept buying enough beef to support still-higher prices.
Now, that resilience is beginning to crack — and at a time of year when demand should be strongest. Beef sales volumes in the 13 weeks ending in mid-July, a crucial stretch encompassing both Memorial Day and July Fourth, fell 0.3% from a year earlier, according to research firm Circana. In the same period in each of the previous two years, volumes grew about 5%. Chicken , meanwhile, continues to see consumption rise, with ample supplies keeping prices under pressure.
The shift suggests there may finally be a ceiling on what Americans are willing to pay for beef, one of the biggest drivers of food inflation. Consumers who had responded to rising prices by cooking at home or buying cheaper cuts are increasingly pulling back altogether or shifting to less expensive proteins.
“Consumers are stretched,” said Chris DuBois , an executive vice president at data analytics firm Circana. “It’s not always just about the price of food, there’s the price of life that hits, so that puts some of the pressure on total volume in the store.”
The steep runup in beef prices has become a major concern of the Trump administration ahead of the midterm elections, as the costs of staples like eggs, ground beef and gasoline play an outsize role in consumer perceptions of inflation.
The US has sought to ease the pressure by importing more meat from countries including Argentina and moving to resume live cattle shipments from Mexico. Beef processors, squeezed by the rising cost of cattle, have closed plants to reduce competition for scarce animals, including a move announced Thursday by Tyson Foods Inc. But those measures can only do so much: The domestic herd remains near the lowest level in more than five decades, keeping beef supplies tight.
Average consumer ground beef prices were flat in July, which includes Independence Day, in a sign that retailers and consumers resisted further price increases. A pound averaged $7.116, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. While that is still near a record high, the 9.4% increase from July 2025 marks the most modest year-over-year jump in 17 months.
To be sure, demand hasn’t disappeared. Even as roughly 40% of beef buyers said they are purchasing the protein less frequently, a dedicated subset of younger, protein-obsessed shoppers have continued to pay up, said Duncan Angove, chief executive officer of supply chain management firm Blue Yonder .
But the weaker beef volumes are especially notable during the summer grilling season when beef demand should be strongest.
“Seasonal demand is typically one of the strongest supports for beef prices,” said Shawn Sparks , a managing director at protein sourcing and brokerage firm The Sparks Group Inc. “When demand begins to soften during peak grilling season, it suggests affordability is becoming a more important factor.”
While sales should still be boosted by Labor Day, the improvement will be “somewhat more measured than in previous years,” Sparks added.
Weaker demand signals helped a steep slide in wholesale beef prices and live cattle futures starting in late June. Futures in Chicago touched the lowest price since December in late July, as the US Department of Agriculture decided to resume cattle imports from Mexico later this month, after a more than yearlong ban to prevent the spread of the deadly screwworm parasite. The market set a fresh nine-month low Friday after Tyson announced its latest plant closures.
“It’s been a chain of events that we’ve seen on the demand side that has led to this point,” Abby Greiman , a livestock market adviser at Ever.Ag Insights, said of the selloff. “It feels a lot softer than it has for a long time.”
The US’s 250th anniversary and the World Cup already helped extend consumption, but “the market I think has been looking for an opportunity to catch its breath, because it’s been dealing with high prices for so long now,” said Michael Di Sabato , the founder of HighLine Consulting Group. “This was the first opportunity for consumption to push back a little bit.”
Fast-food companies have already noted the trend. Michelle Hook, chief financial officer of Shake Shack Inc., said on a call with investors this month that beef inflation in the second half of the year will be “a little bit less pronounced.” Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International Inc. said it is expecting some relief, though “a lot more of that” will come in the beginning of 2027.
Still, consumers shouldn’t expect much immediate reprieve. The first port reopening for live cattle shipments from Mexico isn’t the US’s biggest, and those animals also need to be raised for several months before being slaughtered. Meanwhile, the US cattle herd as of July 1 still remains near its lowest levels in about five decades.
Lower prices wouldn’t flow through until the end of the third quarter at the earliest, due to leftover inventories and hedging programs, George Paleologou, chief executive officer...
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