Free MLB home run picks August 14: Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. among expert's best bets for Friday — CBS Sports

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Free MLB home run picks August 14: Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. among expert's best bets for Friday — CBS Sports | AIPROPX

If you're into home run races, the 2026 regular season is for you. Entering Thursday, we had four players tied for the big-league lead with 35 dingers: Houston's Yordan Alvarez , Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber , Atlanta's Matt Olson and Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero . The last time there were at least four players tied for the MLB home run lead through Aug. 11 or later in a season, excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, was way back in 1982.

Back then as late as Sept. 9, it was Gorman Thomas, Dale Murphy, Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman tied with 34 homers each. Jackson and Thomas would tie for the crown with 39 apiece. But Schwarber hit two into the corn in the Field of Dreams game Thursday night in Iowa, so he now leads with 37 and is the -125 favorite to win the HR title.

It does not appear there are any rainout concerns Friday. Winds seem to be generally blowing in or sideways at parks in the Eastern portion of the country but out in the West. Nothing crazy that should factor into our MLB prop betting much.

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Those who want to get into MLB betting , particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine , and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server , a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my home run picks were two AL All-Star infielders in the Astros ' Jose Altuve and Royals ' Bobby Witt Jr. The future Hall of Famer Altuve had a double in three at-bats vs. San Diego but didn't go yard. Neither did Witt against the Cubs , although he had an hit and RBI. As usual, all of my home run prop picks mean I like Over 1.5 total bases props at the best sports betting apps even better.

Bet home runs at BetMGM Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets here:

The New York Yankees open a series in Toronto tonight with a 7:15 ET first pitch in an Apple TV exclusive and no weather concerns from Rogers Centre with a retractable roof that's usually closed. And it's a matchup of former American League Cy Young Award winners -- if neither guy is much close to that these days -- in the Yanks' Gerrit Cole vs. the Blue Jays' Shane Bieber .

Defending AL champion Toronto has been one of the majors' biggest disappointments, sitting last in the AL East. There are a lot of reasons why things went so badly south and injuries were definitely one, especially to the pitching staff. But the lineup certainly regressed from 2025, especially superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Baby Vlad is making north of $40 million this season in the first year of a $500 million contract and some players struggle in their first seasons after getting a big deal as they tend to press.

Maybe that's the deal with the 27-year-old Guerrero. Last season, he finished with a WAR of 4.5, but that number is only 0.9 this year with Guerrero batting .262 with just seven homers and a single bomb since July 11, coming last Saturday in Philadelphia. Almost impossibly, he has not homered at home yet in 2026. Even last year, when Guerrero hit only 23 regular-season homers, he never went more than 18 home games without one.

This month overall, the All-Star is hitting .238 with that one dinger and says his early season back and hamstring troubles are past him: "I feel good," Guerrero said this week. "But, like I say, sometimes you feel good and you still make outs." His chase rate has jumped to 31% this season after posting a 21.5% in 2025. Perhaps facing Cole wakes up him as Guerrero is 12-for-35 off him with three homers and four doubles, good for a .629 slugging percentage.

Also consider Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk despite his own down year with four homers. He is a .375 hitter off Cole with doubles and a homer. Unlike Guerrero, Kirk is hitting well in August at .361 with a homer.

Bet on home run props and more at FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1,000 in Bet Reset Tokens:

Two NL West teams going nowhere this season meet from beautiful Oracle Park as Colorado visits San Francisco with a 10:15 ET first pitch, the latest on the Friday slate. Winds are blowing out at 12.5 mph. It's an utterly meaningless game in the grand scheme of things other than each trying not to finish last in the division. Then again, you want as many draft lottery ping-pong balls as possible.

Both bad teams were active ahead of last week's trade deadline. San Francisco badly wanted to get out from under the 10-year, $313.5 million contract held by third baseman Rafael Devers, but no other club was going to eat that unless the Giants gave up prospects to do so. Giving up prospects is the last thing this aimless franchise needs right now. Maybe if Devers finishes the season strong he might have a tad bit of value, but he's also getting paid through 2033, so good luck getting rid of him.

Devers is having a decent power season with 24 home runs and has a shot at approaching his career high of 38 set in 2021 while with Boston. His 17 homers since June 6 are tied for fifth-most in the majors, although he's slumping currently with just five hits in his past 30 at-bats with one extra-base hit (a homer) since Aug. 3. A total of 14 of Devers' 24 homers have given San Francisco a lead or tied the game (nine go-ahead and five game-tying).

Tonight, Devers faces one of the worst road starting pitchers in the majors in Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland , who is 0-7 with a 7.81 ERA in 11 away starts with 12 homers allowed (23 overall) and an opponents' batting average of .320, which is insane. Devers is just 2-for-10 off Freeland but both hits were homers. No other Giants have done much against him.