RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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With the trade deadline less than a week away, the Tarik Skubal trade rumors will continue until morale improves. The Tigers looked like they were going to be playing well enough to take those off the table, but things can turn quickly in baseball, and they might have already.
As things stand today, it's looking more and more realistic that the Tigers will trade the two-time AL Cy Young winner before the deadline passes at 6 p.m. on Monday, Aug. 3.
The possibility of a blockbuster deal has hung over the baseball world since the beginning of last offseason. With Skubal set to hit free agency after the 2026 season and an extension with the Tigers almost certainly not happening, the rumor mill has been churning. The Tigers decided instead to not only hold onto Skubal for the 2026 season, but also to sign free-agent lefty Framber Valdez over the winter, taken as a sign they were ready to go all in for this season.
And then May happened. The Tigers were a pitiful 6-22 that month and they were 22-38 when the calendar flipped. They were 11 ½ games out in the AL Central and seven games out of a playoff spot, last in the American League. Surely they were sellers. Not only would Skubal go, but fellow All-Star starter Casey Mize was also speculated to be on the chopping block.
Then the Tigers woke up. From the beginning of June through last Friday, buoyed in part by Skubal's June 13 return from elbow surgery, the Tigers went 28-16 and moved to within 3 ½ games of a playoff spot.
Since then, though, they've lost three in a row. The deficit has only increased to four games, but the deadline is in less than a week away and they're running out of time.
Reality is staring down the Tigers. They have a 17.3% chance to make the playoffs, via SportsLine. The American League is considerably more open than the National League, given the glut of mediocrity and the fact that the top two teams -- Rays and Yankees -- don't appear to be nearly as dominant as, say, the Dodgers and Brewers on the other side of the bracket. Still, what are the realistic chances this Tigers team makes a run to the World Series?
The Tigers are reportedly open to trading Skubal as long as they get a controllable MLB starting pitcher back, a move that could get them right back in the race next year. That feels like the most likely route at this juncture. Detroit is willing to cut its losses with Skubal and get a package of players in return. They were already going to have to replace Skubal in the 2027 rotation; why not start now, rather than lose him for practically nothing this winter?
Then again, the Tigers have five games left before the deadline. What if they win all five? Would they hold Skubal? The schedule is workable. There are two games left in their series against the Orioles and both pitching matchups favor the Tigers, notably Skubal vs. Trevor Rogers on Wednesday. Then there's a three-game series in Sacramento against the A's, who have been terrible for weeks.
Almost every team in contention could use Skubal in their rotation and the sweepstakes for his services will be hot if Detroit goes that route. If not, the price for the other starters on the market, including the Mets' Freddy Peralta and Angels' Reid Detmers, will skyrocket. The Tigers have five games and six days to figure it out.
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