RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 2 sourcesThere are two schools of thought when it comes to betting on preseason football. In one camp, people think that you shouldn’t bet on it because you don’t always know who is playing; it is a lot of guys who are trying to make teams, and mistakes can happen when you don’t really know the players. The other camp says all of the coaches are actually telling you who will play and likely how much, which allows you to get some further indication – for example, if a starting unit is going to play against backups, there should be an edge. Personally, I like betting on stuff, so I’m going to bet on a few things from this slate.
Here is a prime example of the coach giving you some information in advance: Head coach Matt LaFleur said that his starters will start the game, getting some opening snaps, and then most will leave. Jordan Love should get a touchdown drive or at least a scoring drive to start the game. The Steelers have already confirmed that most starters will not play in this opening game. The question then becomes how long does Tyrod Taylor play? I have to imagine that the Packers backup gets at least a quarter of work in. Give me the Packers to score over 19.5 points in this one.
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As much as I’d love to see a shootout between Joe Burrow and Jared Goff, we will have to wait for a regular season showdown for that to happen. Neither of these two is likely to get a ton of work in. It wouldn’t surprise me if both played a couple of reps. Goff has a new offensive coordinator, and Burrow is almost always an injury risk. The Lions have an interesting situation, though. Joshua Dobbs is new to the team, signing just two days ago. He did work with the new Lions coordinator, Drew Petzing, in 2023 in Arizona. I have to imagine his signing had a bit to do with that. The Lions also might consider working Luke Altmyer out. He is battling to be the No. 2 quarterback for Detroit.
How will the Cincinnati backup situation look? Joe Flacco is somewhere between 35 and 78 years old. He is still an effective quarterback, but my point is this: How much preseason action does a guy this old actually need? I’d argue it won’t be much. I expect to see Josh Johnson and Sean Clifford. I’m taking the 6.5 points with the Lions, and probably will put a sprinkle on the moneyline.
The Arizona Cardinals have already played a preseason game, and it was pretty fun to watch. That was the Hall of Fame Game, and they had Carson Beck start that one. I’m not sure if he will be in this one or if Gardner Minshew will get a look or two. Beck looked good in his time with the Cardinals. In his debut, he went 15-for-19 with 188 yards and a touchdown. I am a bit interested to see if Jacoby Brissett or Minshew get action, but I also want to see how much they put out Jeremiyah Love. Marvin Harrison Jr. needs to be out there because he has looked awful.
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The Raiders will be one of the more fun teams to watch because they had the No. 1 overall pick, Fernando Mendoza, come into the league. In case you don’t remember, it was Mendoza’s team that beat Beck’s in the College Football Playoff Championship last year. He will almost certainly start or get at least a full quarter or two worth of work. Kirk Cousins could start and get a few reps, but I think that helps the total here. I think there will be plenty of offense to go around in this one and I like this game to go over 41.5 points.
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