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AIPROPX ReportCBS Sports · 2h ago
WNBA MVP race: Can Caitlin Clark or Olivia Miles stop A'ja Wilson from running away with her third in a row?
When Las Vegas Aces star A'ja Wilson was named MVP last season, she became the first player in league history to win the honor four times and joined Cynthia Cooper as the only players to go back-to-back. Now, Wilson is attempting to win her fifth MVP and become the only player to win the award three years in a row.
Due to the 2026 FIBA World Cup, which will run from Sept. 4-13 in Berlin, the WNBA will pause from Aug. 31-Sept. 16. And so, while there's more than a month until the regular season comes to a close on Sept. 24, there are just over two weeks of regular season action remaining. In terms of games played, the season itself is more than three-fourths complete.
Wilson is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP (-1100, per FanDuel ), ahead of Minnesota Lynx guard Olivia Miles -- an even bigger favorite for Rookie of the Year -- and Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark .
As the regular season winds down, let's take a closer look at the MVP race and answer three big questions.
Simply put, Wilson is having a historic season.
She's averaging 25.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 steals and two blocks on 51.8/40.5/86.1 shooting splits. Not only is she well on her way to a third consecutive scoring title, she's on pace to record the second-highest single-season scoring average ever, behind only her own mark of 26.9 points in 2024. Her 11 30-point games lead the league and are already tied for the fourth-most in a season.
This would be just the second time in WNBA history that a player averaged at least 25 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in a season. The other was Wilson in 2024.
Wilson also leads the league in blocks and is fourth in rebounds, and it should be no surprise that no other player is in the top four in the league in scoring, rebounding and blocks. Furthermore, the advanced stats love Wilson, who leads the league in both win shares (7.3) and RAPM (+5.7).
The reigning champion Aces have not been at their best since the All-Star break, but still sit in third place at 25-13 thanks in large part to Wilson, who has carried the team on both sides of the ball. Notably, she has scored more than one-fourth of the Aces' points this season -- 908 of 3,443, 26.4% -- and her on/off splits are staggering:
Wilson's status as the reigning back-to-back MVP is impossible to ignore, but she's not coasting on her previous success. This is one of the best individual seasons in league history.
Wilson is likely going to win MVP, but there's still just enough of the season remaining that she doesn't have it completely locked up. Here are the current top five in MVP odds:
The Wings got a nice win Thursday, but they're still stuck in eighth place, so we can rule Bueckers out based on that alone. Mitchell has been awesome this season and is the best pure scorer in the league, but she doesn't make enough of an impact in other departments to win MVP.
That leaves two players: Clark and Miles.
Clark has had a fascinating season filled with incredible highs and pretty bad lows.
She hit her first career game-winner, scored a career-high 45 points and has enough 20-point, 10-assist games this season alone (10) to be tied with Courtney Vandersloot for the league's all-time lead. (Clark has 20 such games for her career.) On the flip side, she was pilloried early in the season for her defense, has gone through multiple shooting slumps, missed multiple weeks with a back injury after taking a retroactive Flagrant 2 from Alyssa Thomas and once again leads the league in turnovers.
For the season, Clark is averaging a career-high 21.7 points and 8.3 assists. She's third in the league in scoring, leads the league in assists and is sixth in 3-pointers (90). No player in WNBA history has ever led the league in assists and finished in the top three in scoring, and Clark would also be the first player to average at least 20 points and eight assists.
Clark is having a historic season in her own right, and is going to deservedly make First Team All-WNBA. But she has ultimately been too inconsistent to have a real chance at MVP. It also doesn't help her case that the Fever have a better net rating with her off the court this season: plus-4.1 net rating with Clark on and plus-13.3 net rating with Clark off.
If anyone is going to overtake Wilson, Miles, who is having one of the best rookie campaigns ever and has helped lead the Lynx to the league's best record, has the best chance. Everyone knew about Miles' generational playmaking ability, but no one expected her to be at this level as a scorer and shooter -- especially right out of the gate.
Miles is averaging 19.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 1.3 steals on 50.3/40.7/87.2 shooting splits, leads all rookies in scoring, assists, steals and 3-pointers, and is eighth in the league in scoring and eighth in assists. She currently has the fourth-highest rookie scoring average in league history and the fifth-highest rookie assist average, and is on pace to surpass Clark for the highest rookie season points total. (Miles needs 74 points in Minnesota's final seven games.)
On the advanced stats front, Miles is not far behind Wilson. She's third in both win shares (5.9) and RAPM (+4.6). The Lynx are also significantly worse without Miles on the floor: plus-13.4 net rating with Miles and plus-5.4 net rating without her.
Miles' brilliance, particularly on the offensive end, is a major reason why the Lynx have far exceeded expectations this season. They lost six rotation players during the offseason, made no major free agent signings and Napheesa Collier underwent surgery on both ankles that kept her out until late July. And yet, the Lynx are four games ahead of every other team and are almost certainly going to be the No. 1 overall seed again.
Miles has been the best player on the league's best team from start to finish. That may not be enough for her to become the first rookie since Parker to win MVP, but it's a very strong case.
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