RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Investors were bullish on Sunday evening as the U.S. and Iran continued to halt their attacks on each other, providing space for negotiations that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is also looking ahead to a busy week of tech earnings and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial average surged 337 points, or 0.65%. S&P 500 futures jumped 0.80%, but Nasdaq futures shot up 1.28%.
South Korea’s Kospi index, which has been a bellwether for global stocks lately, climbed 74 points, or 1.1%, as chip heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung reached new deals.
U.S. oil prices tumbled 5.44% to $84.45 a barrel, and Brent crude dived 5.25% to $91.70. Gold rose 1.15% to $4,118 per ounce.
President Donald Trump and Iranian officials have said both sides are actively engaged in diplomacy after nearly two weeks of daily bombardment.
Separately, Iran and Oman are also in talks, with a potential deal coming together that centers around having Iran run vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships.
The U.S. and Iran’s neighbors are unlikely to accept any arrangement that recognizes Tehran’s control over the narrow waterway. But Trump is also running out of options to ease strains in the oil market, which is headed for a crisis as inventories hit critically low levels.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has surged more troops and aircraft the Mideast in case Trump wants to resume major combat operations. But 40 days of all-out war and 13 days of limited strikes failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources told Axios that U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper recommended stopping the recent bombing campaign because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness.
The New York Times also reported that Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, privately warned that restarting major combat operations was doable but that Iran’s retaliation would force Central Command to deplete its stockpile of interceptors to dangerous lows.
It’s a stark turnaround from a week ago , when Iranian attacks killed U.S. troops in Jordan, crossing Trump’s red line for resuming full-blown war. Reports last week said he had lost patience with the Islamic Republic and was in “ revenge mode .” Then he ordered the pause on Friday.
While the U.S. now seems more constrained, Ukraine’s strike on an Iranian supply ship in the Caspian Sea has suddenly expanded the map, raising speculation that it could be used as leverage in U.S.-Iran talks.
Any progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz should further lower oil prices just as the Federal Reserve has sounded more hawkish on fighting inflation.
Central bankers meet this coming week, and Wall Street expects another “family feud” as policymakers debate whether to hike rates or keep them steady.
The rate decision will also feed into the AI trade, which has slumped lately as investors revolt against massive capital expenditures .
More updates on that front are expected when Microsoft and Meta report earnings on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday.
Google parent Alphabet beat earnings estimates last week, but revealed negative cash flow on heavy spending.
Still, demand for AI capacity remains robust. AI developer Anthropic has asked memory chip giant SK Hynix for supplies to make its own semiconductors, according to SK Group Chairman Chey Tae Won.
Rival Samsung Electronics also won a contract worth more than $200 billion to make chips for Broadcom as the companies seek to expand in the AI infrastructure market.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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