RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Around the middle of last week, it appeared that the Minnesota Twins might be looking to trade ace Joe Ryan as part of what might be a big sell-off at the trade deadline, much like they did in 2025. However, now it looks like the suddenly surging Twins will make a push to make the playoffs, which would mean keeping Ryan, who returns to the mound tonight against the visiting Royals .
First pitch in Wednesday's Royals vs. Twins matchup is set for a 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minn. The Twins are -202 money-line favorites in the consensus MLB odds, with Kansas City a +167 underdog, and the Over/Under for total runs scored is set at 9. If you're interested in MLB betting , you can also check out the SportsLine Projection Model for more picks on Royals vs. Twins .
The addition of all these wild card spots has made playoff races a lot of fun, but that might make this year's trade deadline quite lame because there are so few sellers, and now in theory you have to add Minnesota. And I don't know why the Twins wouldn't go for it. They are only two games out of first in a very, very winnable AL Central and a half game out of the AL's final wild card spot. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the team a 42.3% shot at extra baseball, and DraftKings' price for the postseason via any route is +185 (equates to 35.1%).
The 30-year-old Ryan (6-6, 3.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) would have brought a nice haul back, as he's making only $6 million this season and there is a mutual option for $13 million next season that the Twins absolutely will exercise. If they don't make the 2026 playoffs, they could always deal Ryan in the offseason and still do pretty well prospect-wise, assuming he pitches well the rest of the way.
The Twins also could look at a trade of All-Star outfielder Byron Buxton this winter, but apparently are keeping him as well through the deadline. Note that the injury-plagued Buxton left Tuesday's win with hip soreness, so he may sit tonight. Or maybe he just plays at designated hitter.
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I don't stress too much about Ryan's last start, when he was mauled in Cleveland, allowing eight runs and 10 hits, including a career-high and franchise-record six homers over four innings in a blowout loss. Ryan allowed at least one dinger in each inning. He had been pitching great entering the All-Star break and then threw a scoreless inning in the Midsummer Classic.
Ryan was originally to return to the mound Sunday, but the Twins opted to push him back due to some "arm fatigue" so I chalk that awful outing up to that. And I'm sure it's disconcerting for big-leaguers to hear their name in trade rumors and they might have to pick up and move their families quickly. So hopefully both problems are solved tonight against a bad team.
Although, Ryan hasn't been great vs. the Royals in 2026 at 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts spanning 10.0 innings, with Kansas City batters hitting a robust .357 off him. That's by far the highest of any team Ryan has faced this year. But much of that damage was done in an April 1 start in K.C., when he allowed five runs over four innings. He allowed one run over six at home vs. the team in a no-decision on June 6.
The model has Ryan at 5.3 innings pitched, 5.8 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. No Royals have done much against him career, and slugger Vinnie Pasquantino (6-for-22, two 2B, HR vs. Ryan) likely sits out after leaving Tuesday with a hand issue.
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No doubt Kansas City, also still without injured All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., will be selling ahead of the deadline as the team has regressed since earning a 2024 playoff spot. I don't believe manager Matt Quatraro is back next year. Kalshi has a next manager out market open, and Quatraro is near the top of that list of guys taking the most Yes trades.
It looks to be a bullpen-type game tonight led by Randy Dobnak (0-0, 1.42 ERA). He has made four appearances, with two as a piggy-back longer guy and two actual starts. The 31-year-old was excellent last Thursday in Detroit as a pure starter, throwing five shutout innings. With Stephen Kolek (forearm) having been recently transferred to the 60-day injured list, Dobnak should be starting the rest of the season unless he's also traded.
It so happens that Dobnak spent the first six seasons of his career (2019-25) with Minnesota, and this will be the first time he faces his former club. The model his him at 5.5 innings, 3.8 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs. Because of injuries, ineffectiveness and more, Dobnak hasn't gotten a decision in a big-league game since 2021.
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The Royals are batting .180 with runners in scoring situations since the break, so I see then doing very little vs. Ryan. He has a 2.49 career ERA in 13 starts vs. Kansas City with a 0.98 WHIP and .205 batting average against. The Twins have a shot to get over .500 for the first time since April. Can't blow that. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .
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