RESOLVING THE LEDGER
This is one outlet's own report from Forbes — the article as it was filed. Other outlets are covering the same event; open the full story to compare every source side by side.
See the full story · 2 sources
SportsMoney Why Oddsmakers Think The Dodgers Are Beatable After Tarik Skubal Trade By Dan Freedman ,
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Dan Freedman is lawyer and IBWAA member who writes about baseball. Follow Author Aug 04, 2026, 06:30am EDT Aug 04, 2026, 10:56am EDT --:-- / --:-- This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more . This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more . Summary The Dodgers' World Series victories have been a series of narrow escapes. Now viewed as a dynasty, there has been much rancor over their recent acquisition of Tarik Skubal. However, despite the hype and their high World Series odds, the Dodgers are not invincible. Manager Dave Roberts reminds us "Baseball's baseball," a sentiment echoed by their recent home sweeps by the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. Interestingly, the small-market Brewers currently hold the best record in baseball, highlighting that a massive payroll doesn't guarantee dominance. While the Dodgers are lauded for their aggressive, well-run strategy in pursuing championships, their recent struggles prove that even a super team can be beaten. Other contenders, like Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, opted against trading for Skubal, unwilling to risk prospects for a rental, a gamble the Dodgers readily took.
One inch. The Dodgers held onto their hope of repeating as World Series champions last year by one inch. If catcher Will Smith’s spike was just slightly smaller, he does not make contact with home plate and the Blue Jays’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores the World Series-winning run.
One foot. The Dodgers held onto their hope of repeating as World Series champions last year by one foot. If center fielder Andy Pages is one foot slower on Ernie Clement’s drive over Kiké Hernández’s head, the Blue Jays win the World Series.
One inning. The Dodgers trailed the Yankees 5-0 and were being one-hit by Gerrit Cole in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series before Aaron Judge failed to catch a routine flyball and Cole forgot to cover first base. The Dodgers scored five runs – all unearned – to tie the score and eventually win the game and the World Series. If the Yankees don’t implode in that fifth inning, the series would have headed back to Los Angeles with the Yankees on a two-game winning streak, and then who knows?
All of which is to say that but for the caprices of the sport , the Dodgers do not win back-to-back world championships, are not viewed as a dynasty, and don’t have baseball fans in every city except Los Angeles losing their mind over the recent trade for back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
Before Sunday’s game against the Red Sox, Los Angeles Times sports columnist Bill Plaschke asked manager Dave Roberts if the team, with Skubal now in the rotation, “feels unbeatable.” Roberts diplomatically answered: “We gotta play well. Baseball’s baseball…we gotta play the games.” The subtext of what Roberts said was that nothing in life – in baseball – is guaranteed. And, as if to prove the point, the Dodgers went out and got beaten by Boston, who completed the three-game sweep. It was the second time in a month that the Dodgers have been swept at home (the Diamondbacks did it prior to the All-Star break).
Despite all the hullabaloo around the Dodgers and them being some sort of super team and the talk of competitive imbalance and their ability to just buy a winner, as of Monday morning, the Dodgers don’t even have the best record in the game. Once again, small market Milwaukee has that distinction, just as they did last year. Depending on how you do the analysis , the Brewers have the 19 th or 20 th highest payroll and yet have the best record in the game. To quote Roberts: “Baseball’s baseball…we gotta play the games.”
The Dodgers will make the playoffs. FanGraphs has them with a 99.9% chance of winning the National League West. And, with Skubal in the mix, they have a 29.1% chance to win the World Series. Those are lofty numbers, indeed. But turn the prism just slightly, and there is more than a 70% chance that they won’t win it all. Bet Los Angeles or the field? Depends on your appetite for risk.
But one thing is for sure, other teams could have made a deal for Skubal. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote/asked this morning , “Why didn’t the two small-market teams try harder for Skubal?” Rosenthal noted that the $9.4 million that the pitcher is due from now until the end of the season was not an obstacle for either Milwaukee or Tampa Bay. But neither team wanted to take the risk on losing prospects for a two-month (hopefully three-month) rental. The Dodgers had no such fear.
At this moment in time, money notwithstanding, the Dodgers are the best run team in baseball, and possibly in any sport. They have the means and the gumption to make the difficult decisions because they “keep the thing the thing” (as Roberts said yesterday), which is to win the World Series.
The Brewers currently have an 8.6% chance of winning the World Series per FanGraphs; Tampa Bay is at 6.5%. The delta of more than 20% between them and the Dodgers would be considerably less – for at least one of those teams – had they elected to bet some of their future on today and made a deal for Skubal. They simply chose not to make that wager. It is extremely difficult to calculate the financial impact that winning the World Series would have on either franchise, but it would certainly help the Rays finalize their deal for a new ballpark in Tampa.
But, again, nothing is for sure. The Dodgers have won nothing (this year) yet. The Dodgers can be beat, as the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox proved in just the last 30 days. Just as the Padres and Yankees nearly did in 2024. Just as the Blue Jays came ever-so-close to proving last fall. Skubal or no, Ohtani or no, Snell, Tucker, Glasnow, Díaz, Freeman, Betts, or no, the Dodgers may be inevitable , but they are not unbeatable.
AIPROPX is an independent multi-source news index — we track, compare, and connect coverage from across the web into one place you won't find anywhere else.