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Africa's low-key high-stakes Strait of Hormuz diplomacy
African governments have kept a low profile on the international stage during the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. But that doesn't mean they haven't been engaging with the issue behind the scenes.
https://p.dw.com/p/5IrMJ Advertisement One of the principal arteries of world trade has been chronically blocked for almost six months. Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a bare minimum since the first US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February. Cargo ships have at times been fired on by Iranian forces; at others, threats from Tehran or Washington have been enough to bring shipping to a standstill.
So far, various rounds of talks , a joint memorandum and third-party deliberations about the creation of a maritime mission have not succeeded in stabilizing the situation. It remains to be seen whether a deal between Iran and Oman on establishing a shipping route through the strait will do so.
The war has prompted fossil fuel prices to soar all over the world, with inflation rising as a result. Despite its relative proximity to the Gulf region, some parts of Africa have experienced serious shortages because of the bottlenecks, with long lines of cars at gas stations that have run out of fuel.
As many fertilizers are sourced from the Gulf region, this year's harvests also threaten to be bad. African governments therefore have every reason to engage diplomatically in finding a permanent solution.
"I believe their long-term plan is still based on the assumption that the crisis in the Middle East may continue for some time," said Liesl Louw-Vaudran from the International Crisis Group , an NGO that works to prevent conflicts.
The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, but Louw-Vaudran, an expert adviser working with the African Union, said: "We don't see any evidence that there was some kind of optimism or revising of any economic planning after the MOU. I think everyone literally is just waiting to see how this is going to pan out in the next couple of months."
It's certainly the case that a low-key approach has dominated African diplomacy with regard to Hormuz in recent months. There have been numerous calls for negotiated solutions, praise for diplomatic initiatives and an emphasis on the rules-based order. Some African governments have also shown solidarity with the Arab Gulf states, which, as US allies, have come under fire from Iran.
The current African members of the UN Security Council — the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Liberia — also backed a UN resolution adopted in March that strongly condemned Iranian attacks on the Gulf states.
However, it's apparent from their communications that African governments are trying to avoid apportioning blame — especially to the US president, who, together with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , was the one who started the war .
"Every rational human being in the world knows that this crisis has been occasioned by Mr. Donald Trump ," said Dismas Mokua, a political risk analyst with the Kenyan advisory firm Tricarta. "But the majority of African leaders, and indeed across the world, fear to call him out because of the consequences. And I've seen European leaders tiptoeing around this issue, I've seen leaders from Asia — leaders all over the world. I've not seen a single leader who has come out to call Mr. Trump, because I guess they fear the consequences of their speech."
What if the whole of Africa were to speak with one voice — perhaps through the African Union ? Louw-Vaudran from the International Crisis Group thinks a recent negative experience is still too fresh.
"The African Union Commission in Addis Ababa burned its fingers in the early days of the Ukraine war, in 2022, when the previous chairperson criticized Russia . And heads of state then immediately silenced him, and said that the commission doesn't have the mandate to speak on foreign affairs issues on behalf of the continent," she said.
Louw-Vaudran pointed out that the AU, with 55 member states, is "very much divided," and said that, since then, "when it comes to political statements in this big, rapidly changing geopolitical situation, the commission has been hesitant."
The crisis also requires governments to take action rather than just make statements.
"For most countries, or even companies, to be successful wherever there is a disruption in this global supply, you have to reevaluate your supply chains and find out which fits your interest," said Mokua. "And in my view, Kenya has managed to do that with a lot of success."
He added that he hasn't seen anyone — and, in particular, commercial farmers — complaining about deliveries.
"And even for the supply of oil and gas products, people anticipated that there were going to be shortages. But there were no shortages. The suppliers have been constant and reliable, despite the increase in cost."
But the experience of neighboring Ethiopia has been very different. Delivery bottlenecks forced the government to temporarily prioritize security agencies, public transport and agriculture when distributing fuel. Private individuals were stuck waiting at empty gas stations.
Before the war, Ethiopia was one of Iran's most important African trading partners. That connection is now at risk, since Ethiopia also relies on maintaining good relations with the United Arab Emirates and increasingly with Saudi Arabia, too.
Countries like Ethiopia and Kenya may also be about to feel another, delayed effect of the Iran war. If the rich Gulf states' economies falter , East African migrant workers there will transfer less money back home.
But there are also some African countries for whom the uncertain situation in the Gulf might actually be helpful. Nigeria's huge new Dangote refinery came online at just the right time. Intended to ease fuel shortages in the oil-rich country, it's now a mainstay of the world market . In April, the refinery became the world's largest exp...
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