RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The offseason story that dominated the Big 12 will turn out to not matter a single bit during the season.
Defending champion Texas Tech added Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby in one of the biggest transfer portal moves of January. But after Sorsby transferred, it became public that he had been betting on sports while in college. Those bets included Indiana games when he was a member of the Hoosiers.
As Sorsby (and, unofficially, Texas Tech) successfully pushed to remain eligible for the 2026 season, the rest of the Big 12 was up in arms.
All that consternation worked . Amidst the blowback, Sorsby said he'd explore his supplemental NFL Draft options and not play for the Red Raiders in 2026. The NFL, meanwhile, said that it wouldn't have a supplemental draft this summer and Sorsby will now effectively sit out both the 2026 college football and NFL seasons.
Got all that? Here's what you need to know about the Big 12.
Preseason odds for all 16 Big 12 teams
Team
To win Big 12
To make CFP
Win total
Texas Tech
-110
-200
10.5
BYU
+550
350
8.5
Utah
+700
500
8.5
Kansas State
14-1
850
8.5
Houston
16-1
10-1
8.5
Arizona
20-1
14-1
7.5
Arizona State
20-1
16-1
6.5
TCU
22-1
12-1
6.5
Oklahoma State
25-1
17-1
6.5
Kansas
40-1
20-1
5.5
Baylor
40-1
25-1
6.5
West Virginia
40-1
35-1
5.5
UCF
50-1
28-1
5.5
Iowa State
80-1
66-1
4.5
Colorado
80-1
80-1
4.5
Cincinnati
100-1
50-1
5.5
Texas Tech vs. a team from Utah for the Big 12 title?
There are three clear favorites for two spots in the Big 12 championship game. And Texas Tech doesn't have to face either of its two main challengers in the regular season.
The Red Raiders are favorited for a second straight Big 12 title in part because of a schedule that might be the easiest in the conference. Tech's two toughest games on paper are both at home. Houston visits on Sept. 18, and Arizona comes to Lubbock on Halloween. The four opponents Texas Tech visits combined to win 16 games in 2025.
Sure, there's a real scenario where Texas Tech doesn't make the conference championship game. Maybe the quarterback position is unsettled after Sorsby's spring departure and Will Hammond isn't fully recovered from the torn ACL he suffered last season. Turnover regression could also hit hard. After being plus-1 in turnover margin in 2024, Texas Tech was plus-14 in 2025 as LB Jacob Rodriguez parlayed his penchant for turnovers into a fifth-place finish in the Heisman voting.
But we feel safe penciling in the Red Raiders.
Will Hammond is Texas Tech's starting quarterback after Brendan Sorsby's departure. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) John E. Moore III via Getty Images
From there, you can make a lot of cases for Texas Tech's opponent. The strongest two belong to BYU and Utah. The Utes host BYU on Nov. 7. But Utah is also entering a season without Kyle Whittingham in charge for the first time since Urban Meyer was the head coach in 2004.
Longtime Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley takes over after years as Utah's coach in waiting. This is Scalley's first head coaching job and he's also got a new offensive coordinator after Jason Beck followed Whittingham to Michigan.
Scalley was able to keep quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin in Salt Lake City along with RB Wayshawn Parker. Utah should have one of the best rushing attacks in the country once again after averaging 266 yards and six yards per carry in 2025.
BYU is hoping for a second-year leap from QB Bear Bachmeier after he started as a true freshman in 2025. The QB who wears No. 47 totaled 26 touchdowns, but also had eight games with fewer than 200 passing yards. He's going to need to be a better passer in 2026. And he's also going to be doing it with some unfamiliar receivers. The return of RB L.J. Martin is huge, but no BYU receiver with more than 14 catches in 2025 is back on the roster.
How close are Houston and Arizona?
The Cougars made a six-win jump from 2024 to 2025 and Arizona improved by five wins. We're bullish on both teams sustaining that level of success.
Houston brings back QB Conner Weigman for a second season after he threw for over 2,700 yards and rushed for 700 more. Weigman will provide a stable bridge to five-star freshman Keisean Henderson as Henderson is prepped to be the team's starter in 2027. Henderson, a native of Houston, was the top recruit in the state of Texas in 2026 and the No. 2 player overall behind Miami tackle Jackson Cantwell.
After losing top RB Dean Connors, Houston added former Tulane and Oregon rusher Makhi Hughes in the transfer portal. Hughes played for Willie Fritz at Tulane in 2023 when he rushed for 1,378 yards as a true freshman. After a 1,400-yard season in 2024, Hughes got just 17 carries in his lone season with the Ducks. The offensive line is full of experienced transfers and could be one of the best in the Big 12.
Arizona can claim it has the best QB in the conference in Noah Fifita. The fifth-year QB threw for over 3,200 yards and 29 TDs in 2025 as the Wildcats won their final five regular-season games. Head coach Brent Brennan added a host of power conference defenders in the transfer portal in an attempt to reload a unit that allowed just 19 points per game in 2025 after giving up over 30 in 2024.
The Wildcats could also be on the wrong side of some turnover regression, however. Arizona was plus-18 in turnovers after finishing plus-10 over their final four games of the season. Road trips to BYU and Texas Tech are also crucial to any playoff push.
Outside of those cats, Arizona State and TCU are the two teams with the best odds of sneaking into the title game. The Horned Frogs added former Harvard QB Jaden Craig to replace Josh Hoover, while former Kentucky QB Cutter Boley takes over in Tempe. TCU could have every opportunity to play its way into the Big 12 title game over the final two weeks of the...
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