0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. As Tropical Storm Iselle churns across the eastern Pacific, forecasters are watching a remarkably busy basin that includes the remnants of Tropical Storm Moke near Hawaii, the aftermath of Hurricane Lala's devastating impacts, and four additional areas with potential for tropical development.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring six tropical threats across the Pacific, while the latest spaghetti models suggest Iselle is likely to curve away from Mexico's Baja California Peninsula rather than make a direct landfall. The flurry of activity comes as warm ocean waters and a strengthening El Niño continue to fuel storm formation across the Pacific.
While Iselle is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and bring dangerous surf and rip current conditions to portions of Baja California, most model guidance keeps the storm on a west-northwest track that bends farther out to sea. At the same time, Hawaii is still recovering from Hurricane Lala and contending with impacts from Moke, while forecasters are monitoring four other disturbances that could develop into named systems in the coming days.
The concentration of active storms and potential cyclones has made the Pacific one of the busiest tropical basins in the world this week, prompting close scrutiny of forecast tracks and spaghetti models for any signs of changing threats.
Spaghetti models are a series of forecast tracks generated by different weather models and forecasting systems. Rather than showing a single predicted path, they display multiple possible routes a storm could take, helping forecasters gauge both the most likely track and the level of uncertainty in the forecast. When many of the lines cluster together, confidence is generally higher; when they spread apart, the forecast is less certain.
As of Monday morning, Tropical Storm Iselle had maximum sustained wind speeds of 60 mph. Further strengthening is expected, with the NHC anticipating Iselle to become a hurricane on Monday night.
Spaghetti models show the storm curving further into the Pacific and not bringing any direct impacts to land.
The NHC's forecast of the storm's track shows a nearly identical path.
"Iselle is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Tuesday," NHC said in a public advisory.
However, some life-threatening impacts are still expected.
"Swells generated by Iselle are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and will continue for a couple more days," the NHC said. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."
Meanwhile, the NHC is tracking six additional threats in the Pacific, including two named storms and four areas of disturbance that have a chance at strengthening into tropical storms in the coming days.
Although no longer a threat to Hawaii, Tropical Storm Lala remains active over the open waters of the central Pacific. As of the latest advisory, Lala was packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving slowly north-northwestward, with forecasters expecting a gradual weakening trend over the next several days.
The storm previously reached hurricane strength and brought damaging rain, flooding and power outages to parts of Hawaii's Big Island before turning away from the state. Lala is now located hundreds of miles north of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, with no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Lala is expected to remain a tropical storm at least through Wednesday afternoon.
Tropical Depression Moke continues to pass south of Hawaii, where it remains the primary weather threat despite weakening below tropical-storm strength.
Moke was located south of the Big Island with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is expected to continue moving westward away from the islands, the NHC said.
In addition to the three named storms, the NHC is also tracking four areas of interest that have the potential to strengthen into tropical storms.
The threat with the highest chance of development (red on the above map) is expected to continue formation south of the southern tip of Baja California over the next day or so, sporting an 80 percent chance of development within the next week. The system is progressing northwestward, similar to Iselle's path.
An area of disturbance with a 50 percent chance of development (orange on the above map) within the next 48 hours is located southwest of Baja California.
"Satellite wind data indicate that the small area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become a little better defined," the NHC said. "However, the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized."
If it forms, the tropical depression is expected to be short-lived because it will likely cross paths with Tropical Storm Iselle and be absorbed by that system.
The NHC is tracking two other areas of disturbance with low chances of development (yellow). The first is located "well offshore of southern Mexico" and could form later this week.
"Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico," the NHC said.
Then, a system with a 20 percent chance of formation in the next seven days "well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands" is also being monitored by the NHC.
"Some slow development of this system is possible later this week while it moves northeastward or northward across the western portion of the East Pacific," the NHC said.
Forecasters expect Tropical Storm Iselle to continue strengthening in the eastern Pacific while tracking west-northwestwa...
AIPROPX is an independent multi-source news index — we track, compare, and connect coverage from across the web into one place you won't find anywhere else.
