RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Vices Home Run Bets Today: Best MLB HR Props And Odds For Friday By Josh Shepardson ,
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Josh Shepardson is a sports betting analyst, focused on player props. Follow Author Aug 14, 2026, 01:01am EDT --:-- / --:-- This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more . This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more . The home bets were backed into a corner on Wednesday, and two losing home run props would have dropped the picks into the red. Fortunately, while Pete Alonso didn’t slug a home run, Dominic Canzone hit a homer at +389 odds.
Canzone’s homer doesn’t provide much wiggle room, but it provides some. The season’s record for touted home run props is 20-75, with three no-bets. It’s not pretty, but it’s relatively good, considering homer bets are long-shot wagers. As a result, the season’s profits sit at $350.
Friday provides bettors with a robust MLB slate, and two power-packed outfielders have eye-catching home run props. They’re both capable of muscling up for a home run tonight, and their odds are tantalizing. Hitting on either home run prop would generate a more appealing profit for the season, and nailing both would greatly enhance the odds of the season ending in the black for the home run bets.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+373) at DraftKings Sportsbook
JJ Bleday has hit 20 home runs this year, tying his previous career high in substantially fewer plate appearances. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has done most of his homer damage with the platoon advantage and in his homer-friendly home ballpark. The 28-year-old outfielder has hit 15 home runs against right-handed pitching, 14 at home and nine at home against righties.
Bleday’s batted-ball data includes a mix of above-average marks, disappointing marks and one pristine mark. Among 249 qualified hitters this year, Bleday is tied for 83rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.6%), tied for 80th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.4%), 130th in hard-hit rate (40.8%), tied for 112th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (93.2 mph), tied for 63rd in maximum exit velocity (112.6 mph) and tied for 12th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (40.2%). His launch-angle sweet-spot rate is tied with Kyle Schwarber’s, and Philadelphia’s slugger is in the mix to win the home run crown. Bleday’s batted-ball data isn’t perfect, but there are plenty of desirable marks, and his launch-angle sweet-spot rate is superb.
Bleday’s matchup is rock-solid today. Sandy Alcantara’s 1.09 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this season are tied for the 10th-highest mark among Friday’s probable starters. The 30-year-old righty has also been markedly more homer-prone on the road than at home, allowing 13 home runs in 83.1 innings on the road and only four in 80.1 innings at home.
Alcantara’s road woes won’t be aided by playing in Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park’s 111 park factor for homers since 2025 ranks tied for 10th. Bleday should set his new career high for home runs in a season by hitting his 21st homer in 2026 tonight.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+780) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Esmerlyn Valdez has a potentially tricky matchup tonight. Jake Bennett has permitted only five home runs at 0.59 HR/9 in 13 starts this season. However, the 25-year-old southpaw has allowed all five home runs to 225 right-handed batters faced, struck out only 16.9% of them and allowed a 17.3% line-drive rate, 39.3% fly-ball rate and 14.7-degree launch angle to righties.
Valdez justifiably has long odds to hit a home run, given Bennett’s home run aversion this year. The 22-year-old outfielder’s splits and batted-ball data make his home run odds worth chasing. Valdez has drilled 14 home runs this year, ripping seven of them in nearly half the plate appearances against left-handed pitching that he’s logged against right-handed pitching. He’s also hit nine home runs at home and five at home against lefties.
Valdez’s sample size for batted-ball data is small, but it’s impressive. Among 448 batters with at least 50 batted balls this year , Valdez is sixth in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.8%), first in barrels per batted-ball event rate (22.7%), tied for 41st in hard-hit rate (48.5%), tied for 53rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.5 mph), tied for 77th in maximum exit velocity (112.7 mph), tied for 93rd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (37.1%) and tied for the 39th-steepest launch angle (20.6 degrees). Valdez’s +780 odds to hit a home run are too tasty to pass up.
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